Saturday, July 31, 2010

Thrashers Most Improved Team This Off-season?

While stumbling around the Internet, this article by Allan Muir of Sports Illustrated has cited the Thrashers as the most-improved team this off-season. While it is without question the Thrashers have improved, are they the most improved so far? And are these moves alone good enough to get them into the post-season?

For arguments sake, we can take a look at the other "bubble teams" from the 2010 Eastern Conference playoff race:

6. Boston Bruins (91 points)
7. Philadelphia Flyers (88 points)
8. Montreal Canadiens (88 points)
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9. New York Rangers (87 points)
10. Atlanta Thrashers (83 points)
11. Carolina Hurricanes (80 points)
12. Tampa Bay Lightning (80 points)
13. New York Islanders (79 points)

It's worth noting that Florida finished last season with 77 points, but is likely a year or two from being a contender for a playoff spot. Toronto finished last in the conference with 74 points in 2010 and despite improving considerably is still a year or two away as well in all probability.

When looking at the teams that Atlanta competed with for a playoff spot last season, no team has made leaps and bounds on paper as far as improvements. There have, however, been key pieces added to each squad.

Boston has added Nathan Horton (pictured, Bruce Bennett/Getty Images), a 20+ goal scorer for the past five seasons. They have addressed a key concern, that being goal-scoring. Boston scored the fewest goals in the Eastern Conference last year, potting only 206. On the flip side they only gave up 200, the 2nd best total in the East. Adding another 20-25 goals in Horton, plus having Marc Savard and Tyler Seguin for a full season could bode well for Boston offensively. The departure of Dennis Wideman, who had the second-worst +/- on the team (-14) in 2009-2010, could help the goal differential even further. The Bruins are undoubtedly poised for great improvements during the upcoming season.

Philadelphia parted ways with oft-injured Simon Gagne this off-season, who has averaged just 54 games per year the past three seasons. While the Flyers added a hard-nosed defenseman in Matt Walker, they also lost a game-breaker in Gagne. Brought in to fill the void was Nikolai Zherdev, who played in the KHL last season and is as big of, if not more of, a question mark than Gagne. Perhaps most stunning is the fact that Philadelphia chose not to upgrade their goaltending, despite many viable options on the market. Philadelphia may have to make another move or two before the season begins to clear cap space this off-season, but as the dust begins to settle its hard to imagine Philadelphia being able to duplicate it's Eastern Conference championship success with mediocre goaltending and so many question marks offensively.

The New York Rangers, who were eliminated in the final day of the regular season in a shootout with Philadelphia last year, did little to help their cause this offseason. After giving out a puzzling long-term enforcer to Derek Boogaard, who has two more NHL goals than I do in 255 more games, the team then went out and dropped $3 million on Alex Frolov, who oozes with talent but lacks consistency and work ethic to accompany it, to add goal scoring punch. Adding Marty Biron will be key in easing the workload for Henrik Lundqvist and Steve Eminger is a nice addition on the blueline, but it could be another tough season in the Big Apple--and that's assuming Marian Gaborik stays healthy again.

That being said, it could be the teams who finished below Atlanta in the standings that could pose the biggest threats. Carolina quietly improved their defensive corps, adding Anton Babchuk from the KHL and Joe Corvo in a free agent signing from Washington. Losing Rod Brind'Amour's leadership could be key, but the team really turned a corner after naming Eric Staal captain, going 21-10-3 down the stretch after the captaincy change. A healthy Carolina team could pose serious problems to Atlanta's playoff chances, especially with six games against their division rivals and losing to Carolina all three times at home last season.

Antero Nittymaki has departed from San Jose, which is possibly the only good news for the Thrashers concerning the Lightning this off-season. After losing power play specialist Kurtis Foster to the Oilers, Tampa replaced his power play prowess with our own Pavel Kubina, who was good for 10 power play points last season. Gagne's production, provided he is healthy, will be a huge boost to an already offensively talented team and Victor Hedman will only get better with experience. Should Brett Connolly, the team's 6th overall pick in the 2010 Draft, make the team, he too could provide an offensive boost. Yesterday's addition of Dominic Moore will also give the team a nice two-way center to compliment the big guns up front. Couple this with Atlanta's one win in six games against Tampa last season and Tampa could be a thorn in the side of the Thrashers once again.

Finally, the New York Islanders have quietly improved an already much-improved team. The Isles added Zenon Konopka, a hard-nosed leader who lead the NHL in fights last season with 33 (the next closest was Ian Laperriere with 25) while playing in Tampa. This is a great move for the Islanders, adding toughness with a little bit of a scoring touch. Milan Jurcina adds more toughness on the blueline, and Mark Eaton is a servicable veteran. The team also added P.A. Parenteau, who quietly added a solid 8 points in 22 games (projects to 30 over an 82-game season) with the Rangers last year. Couple all this with the addition of Nino Niederreiter and the Islanders have a good, young core that will be tough to play against.

Stack all of this up with the Thrashers, who have added Dustin Byfuglien up front, Brent Sopel on the back end, and Chris Mason in goal. Byfuglien remains a question mark--will he produce as he did in the post-season or regular season? Sopel is a downgrade over Kubina but is a good penalty killer which will help the Thrashers with the loss of Marty Reasoner. Mason is an upgrade over Hedberg in goal who can tandem with Pavelec. Andrew Ladd is another big piece to the puzzle and less of a question mark than the others, bringing character and scoring to a team that may be offensively challenged at times. It all comes together in a new coach, Craig Ramsay, who will bring a whole new winning philosophy to an NHL team with as many playoff wins as the Hartford Whalers in the past 10 years.

It's tough to tell in July what team has improved the most, but when looking at specific team needs I'd be inclined to say Boston has done a great job upgrading. Atlanta isn't far behind, though. What do you think? Is Atlanta the most improved team in the NHL this season?

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Q & A: Thrashers Prospect Carl Klingberg

The Thrashers got a steal when they selected Carl Klingberg, the 6'3" LW out of Frolunda Jr. Klingberg made the transition to Frolunda's Elite League team last year, posting 13 points (6 G, 7 A) in 42 games. Klingberg is considered a contender to make the Thrashers this fall after a strong prospect camp.

Should Klingberg not make Atlanta, he will return to Frolunda and likely earn a spot on Sweden's U-20 National Team at the World Junior Championships in Buffalo. Klingberg plays a solid two way game and has a tireless work ethic and was rewarded with an entry-level contract from Atlanta in June.

I was fortunate enough to catch up with Carl and ask him a few quick questions about Frolunda, prospect camp, and playing his younger brother 1-on-1.

How would you assess last season in Frolunda from a personal standpoint?

I think it went good! I played good when I had the chance and was always playing good. I just want to play more next season and that's my goal.

How did you feel at prospect camp?

Good. I just couldn't get the puck into the net. But as long as I am playing as I should, I will score.

Was it easier going into prospect camp for the 2nd time?

For sure. I was remembering everything, and I knew what we were doing and so on. My English was much better too.

What is the biggest difference between the North American game and the Swedish game? Which style of play do you like more?

Size of the rink. In North America everything is forwards and backwards, in Sweden it is much more playing sideways. I prefer the North American style--that's my game.

The Thrashers have a lot of Swedes on their roster..does having players like Enstrom and Oduya help make the transition easier?

Well, I haven't met them yet, but of course to have some Swedes helps. They can explain everything and have been in my position before, so they know what it is about.

What area of your game have you worked the hardest on since being drafted?

My techincal skills. I want to carry the puck and not lose it as much as I sometimes did before.

Your brother John was drafted this year by Dallas as a defenseman. What was it like growing up in such a hockey family?

We have been pushing each other all the time and been playing on the street since we were five years [old]. It helps a lot. My father was always a helping hand too. He supported me all the time. I can't forget my grandpa either; they have always helped me.

Who wins a 1-on-1 battle...you or John?

Me! I am bigger, stronger, and so on. But give him five years and then we will see! But I will always try to break him.

TC

Monday, July 26, 2010

Alexei Ponikarovsky? Humoring the Rumor Mill.

As the dog days of summer drag on in that unfortunate lull between prospect camp and training camp there becomes litte to talk about in the hockey world. The Thrashers have just locked up Ondrej Pavelec for 2 years, $2.3 million. This is a very solid move for Atlanta. It's a low cap hit and gives Pavelec two more years to develop behind Mason.

But alas, there are issues that the Thrashers still need to tackle. Many feel another bona fide goal scorer is a necessary addition to the roster. A name that man fans, not necessarily hockey sources, continue to throw out it is Alexei Ponikarovsky. Ponikarovsky is an undoubted talent; he's potted 18+ goals five times through his career. So would he be a good fit in Atlanta?

THE CASE FOR PONIKAROVSKY

Ponikarovsky is a solid talent. While many feel he's an underachiever, you can't take away his five 18+ goal outputs, including his career high 23 in 2008-2009. He has good hands and is a solid skater and could look good alongside Nik Antropov, former teammates in Toronto.

Ponikarovsky, a native of the Ukraine, is another big body. Listed at 6'4", 220, Ponikarovsky would certainly fit the bill in Atlanta of being a big, hulking forward (Antropov, Byfuglien, Eager, Kane, Thorburn, and Ladd all exceed 6'2"). He has some finish and solid playmaking abilities, despite sometimes being invisible. Ponikarovsky (pictured above, Getty Images) could benefit from a fresh start as well. Aside from his short stint in Pittsburgh last season he had played his entire career for some very bad Toronto Maple Leafs teams.

Bringing Ponikarovsky would, in theory, address one of the major percieved issues since Ilya Kovalchuk left: who is going to score the goals. Adding a pretty much guaranteed 20+ goal scorer to the 1st or 2nd line would certainly be helpful in that regard.

THE CASE AGAINST

Ponikarovsky has typically underachieved. His talent is a tease, leaving many Toronto fans wanting more. This is a guy with 30+ goal talent who pots 20 on a yearly basis. Again, the numbers are nice, but with the new direction of the team is there space for an underachiever?

The Thrashers are currently building a roster around character players. While guys like Andrew Ladd have been brought in and do have some scoring touch, they are not legitimate goal scorers (Ladd had a career-high 17 last season). Ponikarovsky would not necessarily fit into the roster the Thrashers are trying to build. He has some "all Swedish, no finish" qualities; he has talent but maybe lacks the intangibles to take himself and his team to the next level.

Ponikarovsky has another special talent: disappearing when it matters most. In 34 career playoff games he has a total of two goals. He had 1 in 11 games last year in Pittsburgh, and 1 in 13 games in 2004, the last time the Maple Leafs made the post-season. During that playoff race in 2004, Ponikarovsky had 1 goal in 14 games in March. In Pittsburgh's playoff race last season, he had 2 goals in 16 games. Not exactly stellar numbers.

On an Atlanta team where leadership and clutch play from key veterans is going to be essential to push them to the playoffs, having a guy that disappears when it matters most is the last thing they need.

THE VERDICT

While his playoff sample is sort of small because he did, after all, play for the Leafs who never make the playoffs, his numbers in crunch time have been less than spectacular. Okay, so maybe he's not a perennial April bust the way Joe Thornton or old friend Dany Heatley are. But despite having solid numbers, an underachieving winger who disappears during crunch time isn't exactly what the Thrashers need at this point in time.

TC

Friday, July 23, 2010

Q & A: Thrashers Prospect Will O'Neill

As a Thrashers blogger from Maine I take special interest in Will O'Neill, a University of Maine product who was drafted in the 7th round in 2006. As his career has progressed, O'Neill is carving a niche at Maine as an offensively gifted puck-moving defenseman. O'Neill, a native of Salem, Massachusetts, lead all U-Maine defenseman in scoring with 8 goals an 23 assists.




I was able to catch up with O'Neill (pictured above, Hockey East Online) this afternoon and discuss with him his feelings about being drafted, playing at Maine, and the dreaded treadmill test.

What have you been up to this off-season?

I've just been working out every day with my brother at the Salem State College gym. We train together every summer. We do a program from my strength coach at school, Terry O'Neill. Along with working out it's been a pretty relaxing summer gearing up for next season. A lot of working out, relaxing, and laying low pretty much.

What were your first thoughts when the Thrashers drafted you in 2006?

I was just really happy. I was extremely proud to be drafted in the first place. For every mile my parents drove me, for every ounce of energy I put into playing hockey, I felt a sense of accomplishment at that point. I was extremely proud to be selected by the Atlanta Thrashers because I know about the tradition and the program that it's going to be some day. I want to do everything I can to be a part of that.

For the fans from Atlanta that don't get the chance to see you play a lot, tell us a little bit about your game.

I consider myself a puck-moving defenseman. I like to head-man the puck and give it to the forwards in a position where they can attack the net. I like to shoot the puck and play phyiscally. Most of all, I just like to head-man the puck and move it as fast as I can.

Since you were drafted, what areas of your game do you think you've improved on the most and what you want to improve on?

Since '06 I've really, really worked on getting my body in a position where it can be an asset at this level. I think since then I've learned a lot, been through a lot, and my body has surely been through a lot and since then I think that has been the biggest adjustment to my game; that my body can be at a position to play at a high level and that I can play a certain amount of minutes each game. I also think that my skating has gotten a lot better, assertiveness has gotten a lot better, and my defensive play has gotten a lot better and I think that everything that has ever been an asset of mine has gotten better and everything that has ever been an asset of mine has gotten to a point where I can start to build off it.

Tell us about your overall experience at the University of Maine?

I actually can't speak enough about the experience at Maine. It's been the best years of my life. I've met my best friends up there, my wonderful girlfriend that I met at U-Maine, and it's just been the two best years of my life. It's such an honor each day to be able to go that school and to be able to call that rink mine, to just take everything in each day. I just can't thank the coaching staff enough for giving me the opportunity to be here and anyone along the way that's helped me because it's a heck of a place and I'm proud of it.

Talk to us about prospect camp and what it was like coming in as an older player?

This year in particular I was one of the older guys at camp, so I had done it before. That doesn't always make a difference because you do it to get better each year and to improve yourself. It's tough every year. It's what you put into it that you're going to get out of it. It doesn't matter the age; if you put the veteran NHLers at camp they're still going to get a lot out of it too just because of how grueling the schedule is and the things that you do in the weight room and on the ice. In terms of individual skill work it's really been beneficial to anybody, but for me in particular I had a good camp and learned a lot. You try to learn as much as you can every year and I think as you get older you start to realize, you start to soak in a little bit more how big of a deal it really is and how you can't take it for granted and that all the younger guys are working just as hard as you and you've got to work harder to beat them to where you want to be.

Who stood out the most at prospect camp?

There were a lot of good players, maybe even more talent or maybe even pro-ready, if that's what you call it, maybe more than there have ever been. This year was a really strong camp, defense and forwards, especially some of the guys up front who were terrific. I thought Burmistrov was terrific. I thought Klingberg, Albert, Lasu, Paquette; I mean, I don't want to leave anybody out because I feel bad. Everybody was really, really good, maybe more than past years.

How was the treadmill test?

That wasn't something that I was looking forward to, but it was okay. It was tough, but I guess it was a necessary thing because they wanted to see where everyone was physically. That's the test they do, so that's the test we had to run.

What are your plans for the upcoming season?

Going back to Maine, obviously, where we're going to have a really strong team. We have a lot of returners, I'd say about 95% of the team is coming back. We should have a heck of a team. We're returning the runner up for the Hobey Baker in Gustav Nyquist, who lead the country in points. We have a veteran "D" core and a lot more depth up front that I didn't mention in names. We have a really solid team with great chemistry and really good people. We're all really excited to get going and make something happen this year.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Bryan Little: Sophomore Slump or Serious Issues?

As the 2010-2011 version of the Atlanta Thrashers begins to take shape, many fans are beginning to wonder where the goal scoring is going to come from. With Maxim Afinogenov in limbo and the loss of Ilya Kovalchuk, who were worth over 50 of Atlanta's goals last season, where will the scoring come from?

While some are lobbying for the addition of a high-end free agent (Ponikarovsky, anyone?) it is not necessary at this juncture. The reason? Bryan Little.

Little saw his production sliced almost into a third of what it was during the 2008-2009 season, dropping from 31 goals to 13 in a matter of a year. But why the decline?

In 2008-2009, Little saw himself comfortably nestled on a second line that featured Slava Kozlov and Todd White, both of whom were non-existent in the 2010 campaign. White was oft-injured and Kozlov lost a step. As a result, Little saw himself changing lines frequently and never finding a true rythym. After not scoring a goal in October, Little went into a season-long swoon and, in his own words, started "gripping the stick a little too tight."

Little is a pure goal scorer, something that's hard to find in the NHL (or at any level, for that matter). Little scored 30+ goals in his first two seasons of juniors in Barrie, followed by two 40+ seasons in his final two seasons. Scoring 30+ goals as an overage player is one thing, but putting up 34 goals as a sixteen year old playing against a lot of 18, 19, and 20 year olds is impressive.

In his first season in the AHL, which he split with Atlanta, he scored 9 goals in 34 games (which projects to 21 over a full 80-game AHL schedule). And then, finally, in 2008-2009 he tallied 31 goals in 79 games in Atlanta.

But why will he turn it around now?

Little is a tremendous talent offensively. He has speed to burn and above average hands. I like little on a wing with Antropov. Antropov is a big, hulking winger who can create space for the speedy Little to use. Little also has an above average shot which he used too infrequently last season. When he did use it he did infact seem to be gripping the stick too tightly, oftentimes shooting over the net or hesitating long enough to allow an opposing goaltender to make a play on him. If Little can put the two together like he did just two seasons ago, he will have no problem eclipsing the 20-goal plateau.

Secondly, when Little started the year on a line with Kozlov it was clear of one thing: Slava Kozlov was a different player who had, in the eyes of many, lost a step. The previous season Kozlov commanded much more respect when he had the puck, in turn opening up ice for Little to use his speed.

The Little-White-Kozlov line was also the 2nd power play unit. In 2009-2010 Little saw his power play ice time drop from 4:00 the previous season to 2:58. Subsequently his power play production decreased from 20 points (12 G, 8 A) to 6 points (3 G, 3 A) over the course of one year. With a revamped line-up and losing Kovalchuk, Kozlov, and possibly Afinogenov off of the power play, if figures to give Little more power play ice time. When your ice time goes down by 1:00 per game on the power play, over an 80 game schedule that figures out to be 80 minutes, or 40 full two-minute power plays that Little was not a part of as he was the previous season, making it easy to see why Little's production decreased.

Little has all the attributes; excellent speed, a solid shot, decent hands, and a nose for the net. Little isn't afraid to go to the front of the net and get "greasy"...in fact, if you look at the highlights of Little's 31 goals you'll find a lot of very ugly goals. Players that are willing to crash the net so willingly will be rewarded. Hopefully Little will be rewarded in 2010-2011 and the Thrashers will see the 31-goal side of Bryan Little.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Thrashers Walk on MacArthur

As expected and noted last night, the Thrashers have gotten the results from the Clarke MacArthur arbitration case. The arbitrator has awarded MacArthur $2.4 million and the Thrashers promptly walked away, making MacArthur a free agent immediately.

Like I said last night, I'll be interested to see what MacArthur gets on the open market. There was no place in Atlanta for a $2.4 million third liner, especially when Slater, Boulton, White, Eager, Thorburn, and depending on how things shake out, Peverley, Cormier, and Machacek can fill the bottom two lines.

I'd still like to see Todd White traded--for anything. I know he was a little injured last season, but his $2.375 million cap hit is a burden. A return will likely be low--very low, if anything, but this is one of the last bad contracts we have to get rid of. And the concerns of reaching the salary cap floor? Niclas Bergfors, Ben Eager, Andrew Ladd, Ondrej Pavele and Bryan Little all have to be re-signed as restricted free agents, so there are no valid concerns there.

The Ladd case is a little more concerning. I don't see the Thrashers letting him walk in the least, but I think it would be crucial of GM Rick Dudley to try and hammer out a deal before his July 29th arbitration ruling because in arbitration Ladd could get a pretty steep contract. Nothing earth-shattering, of course, but more than the Thrashers may want to pay. It has also been reported that Ben Eager's contract will be settled before arbitration. No word yet on the term or dollar value being discussed.

Lastly, Maxim Afinogenov and his agent have not spoken for the Thrashers in quite some time. It's been said that Afinogenov wants a multi-year deal while Atlanta's management has drawn the line on a one-year deal. At first I was really pushing to have Afinogenov re-signed, but where the team is now--after acquiring Ladd, Eager, and Byfuglien up front--I'm not necessarily sure there's room for Afinogenov. There are still plenty of viable scoring options in the likes of Byfuglien, Peverley, Kane, Little, and Antropov, not to mention Andrew Ladd has a bit of a scoring touch. It would be interesting to see Afinogenov playing on a line with say, Byfuglien and Antropov, two bigger bodies who would create space for Max to use his speed. But at the price Afinogenov's camp likely wants, I'd say pass at this juncture. If management can find a way to finagle a one-year, $2.5 million deal then I'd lock him up...if not, I hope he finds NHL work somewhere because he can be a great asset to another NHL club.

More to come in the near future.

TC

First Blog: Late-night Updates

Hello all and welcome to Thrash Compactor, an unofficial blog about the Atlanta Thrashers. Just a quick disclaimer before we get going on things: I don't claim to have any awesome inside knowledge; simply insight. I hope to get this thing up and running relatively quickly, but as some of you know this can be a time-consuming process. I hope to actively participate in the blogosphere throughout the rest of the summer, through hockey season, and hopefully through many more seasons to come.

So, in this late hour of the night (it's currently 2:35 on the East Coast) reports have started coming in from all over the place that ex-Thrasher Ilya Kovalchuk's bank-breaking 17-year, $102 million deal has been rejected. I still find this humorous because Kovalchuk's best offer still came back in February when world-renowned GM Don Waddell dropped $101 million on his plate over twelve years. The term of the contract would have been the same for each season, not an absurdly long contract that was clearly lengthened to screw the CBA. I mean, anyone who thinks Kovalchuk would actually be playing when he's 44 is on some pretty cool drugs.

Anyways, the Kovalchuk saga may be captivating but is finally, at least it appears, not Thrashers news. The real news is that Clarke MacArthur is going to arbitration and, as reported by Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Tuesday morning, is going to recieve $2 million. If the Thrashers don't like the ruling in the arbitration case, they can simply walk away and make MacArthur a free agent.

In today's salary cap system spending $2 million on a player who at this point can essentially be pegged as an extra forward on a team already bursting at the seams with bottom-six talent is useless. Letting MacArthur walk will also be a waste of the 3rd and 4th round picks in the 2010 Entry Draft. It was a gamble that failed, but MacArthur, whose two-way game is flawed, simply does not have a place within the roster. Losing the picks does hurt, but likely those guys have about a 10% chance of making the NHL anyways.

In addition to MacArthur departing, this opens another roster spot a prospect who the Thrashers want to get into their line-up; be it Patrice Cormier (acquired in the Kovalchuk deal), Spencher Macachek, or, if they can finagle it, Alex Burmistrov. So while the two picks--assets--were essentially wasted, the team has backed themselves into a corner with the situation and is much better suited to walk away from Clarke MacArthur. I don't think MacArthur would command nearly $2 million on the open market despite potting 16 goals last season (3 in 21 games with Atlanta).

I feel like that was way to much time talking about Clarke MacArthur.

In a side note, vuvuzelas have been banned from Philips arena, as well.

I feel like that was way too much time talking about vuvuzelas.

And so, this concludes the first post on Thrash Compactor. Kudos to Kevin Brooks for the clever title and snazzy banner atop the page. MacArthur's arbitration hearing is in a matter of hours, so I'll have more coverage of that tomorrow.