Thursday, July 22, 2010

Bryan Little: Sophomore Slump or Serious Issues?

As the 2010-2011 version of the Atlanta Thrashers begins to take shape, many fans are beginning to wonder where the goal scoring is going to come from. With Maxim Afinogenov in limbo and the loss of Ilya Kovalchuk, who were worth over 50 of Atlanta's goals last season, where will the scoring come from?

While some are lobbying for the addition of a high-end free agent (Ponikarovsky, anyone?) it is not necessary at this juncture. The reason? Bryan Little.

Little saw his production sliced almost into a third of what it was during the 2008-2009 season, dropping from 31 goals to 13 in a matter of a year. But why the decline?

In 2008-2009, Little saw himself comfortably nestled on a second line that featured Slava Kozlov and Todd White, both of whom were non-existent in the 2010 campaign. White was oft-injured and Kozlov lost a step. As a result, Little saw himself changing lines frequently and never finding a true rythym. After not scoring a goal in October, Little went into a season-long swoon and, in his own words, started "gripping the stick a little too tight."

Little is a pure goal scorer, something that's hard to find in the NHL (or at any level, for that matter). Little scored 30+ goals in his first two seasons of juniors in Barrie, followed by two 40+ seasons in his final two seasons. Scoring 30+ goals as an overage player is one thing, but putting up 34 goals as a sixteen year old playing against a lot of 18, 19, and 20 year olds is impressive.

In his first season in the AHL, which he split with Atlanta, he scored 9 goals in 34 games (which projects to 21 over a full 80-game AHL schedule). And then, finally, in 2008-2009 he tallied 31 goals in 79 games in Atlanta.

But why will he turn it around now?

Little is a tremendous talent offensively. He has speed to burn and above average hands. I like little on a wing with Antropov. Antropov is a big, hulking winger who can create space for the speedy Little to use. Little also has an above average shot which he used too infrequently last season. When he did use it he did infact seem to be gripping the stick too tightly, oftentimes shooting over the net or hesitating long enough to allow an opposing goaltender to make a play on him. If Little can put the two together like he did just two seasons ago, he will have no problem eclipsing the 20-goal plateau.

Secondly, when Little started the year on a line with Kozlov it was clear of one thing: Slava Kozlov was a different player who had, in the eyes of many, lost a step. The previous season Kozlov commanded much more respect when he had the puck, in turn opening up ice for Little to use his speed.

The Little-White-Kozlov line was also the 2nd power play unit. In 2009-2010 Little saw his power play ice time drop from 4:00 the previous season to 2:58. Subsequently his power play production decreased from 20 points (12 G, 8 A) to 6 points (3 G, 3 A) over the course of one year. With a revamped line-up and losing Kovalchuk, Kozlov, and possibly Afinogenov off of the power play, if figures to give Little more power play ice time. When your ice time goes down by 1:00 per game on the power play, over an 80 game schedule that figures out to be 80 minutes, or 40 full two-minute power plays that Little was not a part of as he was the previous season, making it easy to see why Little's production decreased.

Little has all the attributes; excellent speed, a solid shot, decent hands, and a nose for the net. Little isn't afraid to go to the front of the net and get "greasy"...in fact, if you look at the highlights of Little's 31 goals you'll find a lot of very ugly goals. Players that are willing to crash the net so willingly will be rewarded. Hopefully Little will be rewarded in 2010-2011 and the Thrashers will see the 31-goal side of Bryan Little.