Stay tuned to ThrashCompactor for Thrashers rumor updates.
9:55 am: Kevin Allen of USA Today reporting Thrashers are close to a 3-year deal with Mark Stuart, Oduya and Hainsey available.
10:08 am: Kevin Allen reporting that Oduya is the main Thrashers player available for teams looking for a defenseman. Also notes that he is told by a GM that there are a surprising number of players available.
10:21 am: According to Billy Jaffe, the Thrashers and Panthers are talking about swapping forwards. Marty Reasoner?
10:32 am: Bob Mackeznie reporting that Mark Stuart has signed a 3-year deal worth an average of $1.7 million per.
10:36 am: TC: I expect something interesting today, possibly on the Antropov or Bergfors front.
10:39 am: Radek Dvorak is a Thrasher for Nic Bergfors and Patrick Rismiller
11:00 am: Also should be noted that the Thrashers get Florida's fifth-round pick. Oduya & Hainsey market should pick up, but I think Antropov's big contract could be moved to a team needing a big center.
11:45 am: Calm before the storm? No official trades since the Dvorak trade. Thrashers appear to be active but patient. Waiting to hear something about Freddy Modin...
12:03 om: Thrashers claim F Rob Shremp.
1:31 pm: You've got to figure Dudley is still hard at work on the phones. Wonder what offers have been made, if any, for Oduya, Hainsey, or Modin?
1:36 pm: Chris Vivlamore saying the Thrashers trade front is quiet. I'd still imagine we'll hear something else before the end of the day...there's still an hour and a half until the deadline and anything can happen.
2:28 pm: Still no new news on the Thrashers front. Dustin Penner has just gone to Los Angeles. Oduya, Hainsey, and Modin are all still out there but it's tough to tell if any of them will go. I'd like to think Modin will go for anything, simply because he doesn't fit into Atlanta's long-term plans and it'd be more beneficial to even receive a 7th for him than watch him clog up space in the line-up.
3:00 pm: Freddy Modin to Calgary for a 7th and Drew MacIntyre to Montreal for Brett Festerling. This appears to be it for the Thrashers.
Monday, February 28, 2011
Monday, February 21, 2011
To Buy or Sell? Deadline Approaches...
The Thrashers are in a precarious situation; they sit four points out of a playoff spot and are finally even with Carolina, who currently hold the 8th spot, in games played. Carolina does own the tie-breaker, but the Thrashers are anything but eliminated.
The Thrashers now face their final 22 games of the season, and after a monster collapse over the last 25 games and an even more impressive collapse in Edmonton, the Thrashers sit in the middle of a teeter-totter as the trade deadline creeps up a week from today. Should the Thrashers buy or sell assets in the coming week?
When I speak of assets, I'm not talking someone like Zach Bogosian or Nic Bergfors, both of whom who are young and have long-term potential. I speak of the Brent Sopels of the world, those who are older or nearing the end of their contracts.
Rick Dudley has already made one trade in the past few days, adding forward Blake Wheeler and defenseman Mark Stuart to an already loaded blue line. Dudley followed through on his promise to improve the current roster without jeopardizing the team in the long-term. What's next, though?
Should the Thrashers lose to Buffalo on Wednesday, their chances will slip drastically. They would be 2 points behind Buffalo who would have two games in hand, and they could slip even further behind Carolina who battle the Rangers Tuesday night. If the Thrashers fall to six points behind Carolina and fall to Buffalo on Wednesday, the Thrashers should go into sell mode--or at least a relative sell mode--for the end of this season.
Veterans like Sopel would have little use to the Thrashers down the stretch (provided they are 6-8 points back by the deadline) and with Mark Stuart coming in, essentially replacing Sopel, it makes Sopel expendable and a very nice piece to a team looking for a rock on the blue line. As is the Thrashers have an extra defenseman and there is no use having Stuart or Sopel sitting (they won't roll seven D all season, will they?), so it makes sense to move one. Ron Hainsey is another option but his high salary is likely to be a deterrent to any time interested.
Nik Antropov's name has surfaced in rumors, but Antropov is signed through 2012-2013, so he could still be a viable piece for a Thrashers team that figures to be legitimate contenders in the next two or three seasons. However, Antropov makes $4.75 million in the final year of his deal, something that could be alleviated by moving Antropov now. I would advocate against it, at least for this season, but of course if the right package is there then Dudley has to pull the trigger, especially with Burmistrov and Cormier waiting in the wings for the bottom two center positions.
Another piece could be Freddy Modin, who would likely get minimal return (7th rounder, anyone?) but would still be expendable. Modin will likely not be back by next season and hasn't figured into the Thrashers much, healthy or not, so moving him for anything would be a wise choice for management.
Chris Thorburn and Eric Boulton are both free agents after this season, but neither hold much value to any NHL team that doesn't play in Atlanta. They'll likely stay put, though one has to wonder if Boulton's run here will ever end. I do admire Boulton and think he has a place, but with Chris Thorburn capable of handling pugilistic duties (while not to Boulton's extent, granted), Boulton's spot could be filled by next season, especially with the slow-yet-steady emergence of Spencer Machacek.
A lot of the season hinges on the next game or two. Should the Thrashers get four points and put themselves right back in the race, then perhaps the pieces should stay in place. One more forward would be a nice addition, but as of right now the team is going to be borderline the rest of the way. The team is good enough as is, but if they continue the costly mistakes they've been making they won't be good enough either way; buyers or not.
The Thrashers now face their final 22 games of the season, and after a monster collapse over the last 25 games and an even more impressive collapse in Edmonton, the Thrashers sit in the middle of a teeter-totter as the trade deadline creeps up a week from today. Should the Thrashers buy or sell assets in the coming week?
When I speak of assets, I'm not talking someone like Zach Bogosian or Nic Bergfors, both of whom who are young and have long-term potential. I speak of the Brent Sopels of the world, those who are older or nearing the end of their contracts.
Rick Dudley has already made one trade in the past few days, adding forward Blake Wheeler and defenseman Mark Stuart to an already loaded blue line. Dudley followed through on his promise to improve the current roster without jeopardizing the team in the long-term. What's next, though?
Should the Thrashers lose to Buffalo on Wednesday, their chances will slip drastically. They would be 2 points behind Buffalo who would have two games in hand, and they could slip even further behind Carolina who battle the Rangers Tuesday night. If the Thrashers fall to six points behind Carolina and fall to Buffalo on Wednesday, the Thrashers should go into sell mode--or at least a relative sell mode--for the end of this season.
Veterans like Sopel would have little use to the Thrashers down the stretch (provided they are 6-8 points back by the deadline) and with Mark Stuart coming in, essentially replacing Sopel, it makes Sopel expendable and a very nice piece to a team looking for a rock on the blue line. As is the Thrashers have an extra defenseman and there is no use having Stuart or Sopel sitting (they won't roll seven D all season, will they?), so it makes sense to move one. Ron Hainsey is another option but his high salary is likely to be a deterrent to any time interested.
Nik Antropov's name has surfaced in rumors, but Antropov is signed through 2012-2013, so he could still be a viable piece for a Thrashers team that figures to be legitimate contenders in the next two or three seasons. However, Antropov makes $4.75 million in the final year of his deal, something that could be alleviated by moving Antropov now. I would advocate against it, at least for this season, but of course if the right package is there then Dudley has to pull the trigger, especially with Burmistrov and Cormier waiting in the wings for the bottom two center positions.
Another piece could be Freddy Modin, who would likely get minimal return (7th rounder, anyone?) but would still be expendable. Modin will likely not be back by next season and hasn't figured into the Thrashers much, healthy or not, so moving him for anything would be a wise choice for management.
Chris Thorburn and Eric Boulton are both free agents after this season, but neither hold much value to any NHL team that doesn't play in Atlanta. They'll likely stay put, though one has to wonder if Boulton's run here will ever end. I do admire Boulton and think he has a place, but with Chris Thorburn capable of handling pugilistic duties (while not to Boulton's extent, granted), Boulton's spot could be filled by next season, especially with the slow-yet-steady emergence of Spencer Machacek.
A lot of the season hinges on the next game or two. Should the Thrashers get four points and put themselves right back in the race, then perhaps the pieces should stay in place. One more forward would be a nice addition, but as of right now the team is going to be borderline the rest of the way. The team is good enough as is, but if they continue the costly mistakes they've been making they won't be good enough either way; buyers or not.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
As The Deadline Approaches, Ownership Looms
Without waiting a full 24-hours for the great news of Dustin Byfuglien's re-signing to sink in, Atlanta Spirit, the woeful owners of the Atlanta Thrashers, came out and admitted that moving the team is becoming a realistic option if investors aren't found in the near future.
This is disheartening, scary news for Thrashers fans wanting to see the team stay in Atlanta. While none of this is necessarily new news, it is alarming to hear Michael Gearon, Atlanta Spirit co-owner, speak so openly about the team moving. With seemingly little backing from Gary Bettman and the rest of the NHL, the situation is tenuous.
Gearon's whining in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution does come off as extremely mis-guided; an owner who has been part of a conglomerate that has lied to fans and done nothing to deserve their support is now in the press begging for fans to show up at the games. This would be a much easier to pill to swallow had ownership made a consistent effort from day one to build a winning hockey team. This has not been the case, however, and fans are rightfully upset.
The only way to solve the matter is to find a wealthy investor or a new owner entirely to take control out of Gearon and other co-owner Bruce Levenson's hands. The two are businessmen, not hockey people, and it shows through their handling of the franchise. This is obviously much easier said than done, but a public outcry is one of the most necessary aspects.
The more positive buzz the team can get, the better; but some of it needs to be a voicing of support from Atlanta mayor Kasim Reed, among other figureheads, to generate some positive press. The Thrashers have been a vortex of negativity since their inception, and a positive outcry of support, including increased attendance, is pretty much the last leg the city has to stand on.
If the Thrashers are going to stick around much longer, it's up to the fans to get out and show they want them to stay.
BOGOSIAN ON THE BLOCK?
Thrashers General Manager Rick Dudley has been working the phones, according to several interviews, but has not found a deal that works in the short and long term. The hot rumor in the hockey world right now is Zach Bogosian, which is idiotic on many levels.
First off, Bogosian is 20-years-old. And while I'm not exactly envisioning a Braydon Coburn situation, there is still tremendous upside to Bogosian's game and it's way too early to be throwing in the towel. If the Thrashers intend to trade Bogosian
which, like I said, is a foolish notion, then they would need to get a bona fide 25-30 goal scorer who is still at restricted free agent status.
Bogosian was plagued by injuries last season and inconsistent play this year, but seems to have turned a corner in the last two weeks. Bogosian still has top-pairing potential and at this point Ron Hainsey and Brent Sopel, despite offering diminished returns as opposed to Bogosian, would make more sense on the trading block. Hainsey is unlikely to be moved due to his contractual burden, but if you're Rick Dudley it's certainly worth looking into.
BYFUGLIEN INKS FOR FIVE YEARS
Dustin Byfuglien's re-signing is important for the franchise on so many levels. Firstly, Byfuglien is locked up for five years and is entering his prime as one of the most dynamic defensemen in the NHL. It also sends a message to other free agents that Atlanta can be a desirable place to play, with a player of Byfuglien's caliber agreeing to stay put for the next half of a decade.
While the price may have been slightly high, Byfuglien's value to the Thrashers is immeasurable. And now he and Toby Enstrom can continue to be Atlanta's top pairing on defense for the next two years, at least. This should also set up Andrew Ladd's extension who will probably be around the 4 year/$16 million range.
More to come in the next few days as the deadline looms...
TC
This is disheartening, scary news for Thrashers fans wanting to see the team stay in Atlanta. While none of this is necessarily new news, it is alarming to hear Michael Gearon, Atlanta Spirit co-owner, speak so openly about the team moving. With seemingly little backing from Gary Bettman and the rest of the NHL, the situation is tenuous.
Gearon's whining in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution does come off as extremely mis-guided; an owner who has been part of a conglomerate that has lied to fans and done nothing to deserve their support is now in the press begging for fans to show up at the games. This would be a much easier to pill to swallow had ownership made a consistent effort from day one to build a winning hockey team. This has not been the case, however, and fans are rightfully upset.
The only way to solve the matter is to find a wealthy investor or a new owner entirely to take control out of Gearon and other co-owner Bruce Levenson's hands. The two are businessmen, not hockey people, and it shows through their handling of the franchise. This is obviously much easier said than done, but a public outcry is one of the most necessary aspects.
The more positive buzz the team can get, the better; but some of it needs to be a voicing of support from Atlanta mayor Kasim Reed, among other figureheads, to generate some positive press. The Thrashers have been a vortex of negativity since their inception, and a positive outcry of support, including increased attendance, is pretty much the last leg the city has to stand on.
If the Thrashers are going to stick around much longer, it's up to the fans to get out and show they want them to stay.
BOGOSIAN ON THE BLOCK?
Thrashers General Manager Rick Dudley has been working the phones, according to several interviews, but has not found a deal that works in the short and long term. The hot rumor in the hockey world right now is Zach Bogosian, which is idiotic on many levels.
First off, Bogosian is 20-years-old. And while I'm not exactly envisioning a Braydon Coburn situation, there is still tremendous upside to Bogosian's game and it's way too early to be throwing in the towel. If the Thrashers intend to trade Bogosian
which, like I said, is a foolish notion, then they would need to get a bona fide 25-30 goal scorer who is still at restricted free agent status.Bogosian was plagued by injuries last season and inconsistent play this year, but seems to have turned a corner in the last two weeks. Bogosian still has top-pairing potential and at this point Ron Hainsey and Brent Sopel, despite offering diminished returns as opposed to Bogosian, would make more sense on the trading block. Hainsey is unlikely to be moved due to his contractual burden, but if you're Rick Dudley it's certainly worth looking into.
BYFUGLIEN INKS FOR FIVE YEARS
Dustin Byfuglien's re-signing is important for the franchise on so many levels. Firstly, Byfuglien is locked up for five years and is entering his prime as one of the most dynamic defensemen in the NHL. It also sends a message to other free agents that Atlanta can be a desirable place to play, with a player of Byfuglien's caliber agreeing to stay put for the next half of a decade.
While the price may have been slightly high, Byfuglien's value to the Thrashers is immeasurable. And now he and Toby Enstrom can continue to be Atlanta's top pairing on defense for the next two years, at least. This should also set up Andrew Ladd's extension who will probably be around the 4 year/$16 million range.
More to come in the next few days as the deadline looms...
TC
Sunday, January 2, 2011
New Years Resolutions for the Thrashers
With the new year upon us and the Thrashers fresh off a 4-3 win over the Canadiens, it's time to settle into 2011 and make a few resolutions for the Thrashers. While most resolutions include quitting smoking or losing weight, the Thrashers need nothing of the sort (would anyone want Dustin Byfuglien to lose weight?). Instead the Thrashers have a few more important tasks to take care as the calendar flips.
Resolution #1: Get healthy.
The Thrashers played 41 games in 85 days to start the season, including 14 games in December alone. As the Thrashers have been allotted 100 days to play their final 41, the Thrashers must began to rest up and get healthy before the stretch run. Jim Slater (concussion), Zach Bogosian (knee), Evander Kane (mid-body), Nik Antropov (hip), and Ben Eager (lower body) are all nursing various injuries and will need some rest to heal up the bumps and bruises. With more off days in the second half of the season, the team is afforded an opportunity to heal and ice the best team possible for a stretch run in March and April.
Resolution #2: Improve the penalty kill.
The Thrashers 79.9% penalty kill is good for 23rd in the league, a drop-off from last season when they finished 16th. The Thrashers have been shorthanded 144 times and have given up an eight-worst 29 power play goals; about one every four and a half periods. Of the top eight penalty-killing teams in the NHL, all of them are currently in a playoff position. Last season 7 of the top 8 were in playoff position, with lone exception being the St. Louis Blues. If the Thrashers want to make a legitimate playoff run they'll need to sure up their penalty kill.
Resolution #3:Sell out Philips.
Attendance is steadily improving, as the Thrashers have averaged 15,980 per game in the four games since mascot "Thrash" made headlines for "stealing" a zamboni. This is no coincidence, however; the Thrashers traditionally see an attendance increase after football season and with the Thrashers exciting play over the first half it's no surprise the fans are coming out. Should the Thrashers continue to progress, it's not unreasonable to see Philips Arena packed on a nightly basis as the team pushes for it's second playoff berth in franchise history.
Resolution #4:Finish the job.
As of January 2nd, the Thrashers have an 8-point lead in Carolina for the final playoff spot, despite Carolina having some games in hand. The Thrashers now control their own destiny over the final 40 games: win and they're in, and once in anything can happen. Atlanta has to continue their upward progression, starting with a series of games against Florida, Toronto, and Carolina that starts Wednesday. If hockey is going to grow in Atlanta, the first step is generating a buzz and nothing will do that like the Stanley Cup playoffs.
TC
Resolution #1: Get healthy.
The Thrashers played 41 games in 85 days to start the season, including 14 games in December alone. As the Thrashers have been allotted 100 days to play their final 41, the Thrashers must began to rest up and get healthy before the stretch run. Jim Slater (concussion), Zach Bogosian (knee), Evander Kane (mid-body), Nik Antropov (hip), and Ben Eager (lower body) are all nursing various injuries and will need some rest to heal up the bumps and bruises. With more off days in the second half of the season, the team is afforded an opportunity to heal and ice the best team possible for a stretch run in March and April.
Resolution #2: Improve the penalty kill.
The Thrashers 79.9% penalty kill is good for 23rd in the league, a drop-off from last season when they finished 16th. The Thrashers have been shorthanded 144 times and have given up an eight-worst 29 power play goals; about one every four and a half periods. Of the top eight penalty-killing teams in the NHL, all of them are currently in a playoff position. Last season 7 of the top 8 were in playoff position, with lone exception being the St. Louis Blues. If the Thrashers want to make a legitimate playoff run they'll need to sure up their penalty kill.
Resolution #3:Sell out Philips.
Attendance is steadily improving, as the Thrashers have averaged 15,980 per game in the four games since mascot "Thrash" made headlines for "stealing" a zamboni. This is no coincidence, however; the Thrashers traditionally see an attendance increase after football season and with the Thrashers exciting play over the first half it's no surprise the fans are coming out. Should the Thrashers continue to progress, it's not unreasonable to see Philips Arena packed on a nightly basis as the team pushes for it's second playoff berth in franchise history.
Resolution #4:Finish the job.
As of January 2nd, the Thrashers have an 8-point lead in Carolina for the final playoff spot, despite Carolina having some games in hand. The Thrashers now control their own destiny over the final 40 games: win and they're in, and once in anything can happen. Atlanta has to continue their upward progression, starting with a series of games against Florida, Toronto, and Carolina that starts Wednesday. If hockey is going to grow in Atlanta, the first step is generating a buzz and nothing will do that like the Stanley Cup playoffs.
TC
Sunday, December 5, 2010
Responding to Daly, Edwards
As a life-long Thrashers fan (I've followed them since I was 10 years old), I've seen the ups and downs that the franchise has had in what is an admittedly short history. I've seen sellouts at Philips Arena and I've seen empty buildings, yet I've seen it all while living nestled away in New England. New England. Boston Bruins country.
As I try to keep this blog neutral and objective, I cannot help but lash out at some of the stuff I've read about the Thrashers over the past few days. I may be late to the ball, but I'd like to share my thoughts on it nonetheless.
Recently NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly went on Winnipeg sports radio to discuss the Thrashers future in Atlanta, while Jack Edwards, who will never be confused with Albert Einstein, went off on this rant which simultaneously praised the Thrashers and degraded the entire sports fanbase in the city of Atlanta.
Daly noted that "We're going to have to look at the long term prospects of that franchise, and if the determination is made that it can't make it there, and can't be successful there, then something will have to be done," and that "Atlanta has proven to be a very difficult market," the latter statement in some senses ringing true.
Edwards blog was a little more asinine, saying things like:
and:
and, of course, had to throw in the obligatory:
This is all fine and dandy. The fact of the matter is, those who live in glass houses should not throw stones. Edwards blasts the Atlanta sports fans for essentially not supporting their teams. This is excellent. Before we get to hockey, let's observe.
The last year the Boston Red Sox had a losing record was 1997. Their average attendance that year? 27,483, good for 9th in the then-14 team American League. The last year the Boston Celtics had a losing record was 2006-2007, when they put 16,843 fans in the seats per game. That was good for 20th in the 30-team NBA. Patriots attendance numbers were not readily available. The point? Boston doesn't support their teams when they lose either.
The Thrashers are winning now, yes. They have won 7 of 8 and are climbing the Eastern Conference standings. However, they've won as many NHL playoff games as the Red Sox have--zero. Over ten years, that tends to deflate a fan base. Unfortunately for the Thrashers, winning a handful of games in November is not going to magically start selling out Philips Arena. I agree in principle with what Edwards is saying: the fans in Atlanta should be supporting the team. This is absolutely true. But for those who have supported the team only to see star player after star player skip town and for years of little reward, why would any average fan want to spend thousands of dollars on season tickets?
That's a good question I suppose. Perhaps we should ask Bruins fans? Here's a comparison look at the Bruins attendance versus the Thrashers since the Thrashers inception:
*=Indicates winning season
Note that when the Thrashers had their two winning seasons from 2005-2007, attendance was at its highest. When the Bruins had their losing swoon during that same time, their attendance suffered the most. The point? There is a correlation between winning teams and attendance.
The Chicago Blackhawks are the toughest ticket in hockey right now, selling out the United Center on a nightly basis. During their last losing season in 2006-2007, the Blackhawks drew 12,727 fans per night to the United Center, lower than any paid attendance number in Thrashers history. Look at the 'Hawks now; they've rebuilt their team (with help from Rick Dudley) and turned them into a Stanley Cup champion. Their championship season? They lead the NHL with a 21,356 average which was 108.3% of the United Center capacity.
In 2003-2004 the Pittsburgh Penguins were the worst team in the NHL. Their attendance that year? A paltry 11,877, which sparked relocation rumors galore. Things turned around after that for the Penguins as they soon went on to win the 2009 Stanley Cup. They drew 16,975 that season and, come to think of it, I haven't heard any relocation talk since.
The point? Winning builds a fan base. The Thrashers have never iced a consistent winner and their attendance numbers reflect that rightfully so. NHL tickets are not exactly inexpensive. Would you want to spend hundreds of dollars to go bring your family to a game to see a product you knew was inferior? I know I wouldn't. Even being the hockey fan that I am I couldn't justify spending hundreds and hundreds of dollars to watch my team get smoked--I'd rather just watch it on TV. Sure, I love the live game, but the casual hockey fan thinks with their wallet.
Those casual fans are what fill the TD Bank Garden every night. Sure, the Bruins have a solid fan base. If the Thrashers had been founded in 1924 I'm sure their fan base would be more extensive as well. But aside from those lifelong fans, there are plenty of Boston sports fans up here that love the Bruins yet can't say Milan Lucic's name right. They're casual, fairweather fans and every city has them. What I see from Jack Edwards is, well (not surprisingly), ignorant. The Bruins have not always packed the Garden and there will be a day when they won't again. Same goes with the Thrashers.
I'm looking at you too, Bill Daly. The NHL has much greater problems in Phoenix. Remember that Washington, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Carolina, and the list goes on and on, are non-traditional hockey markets where the sport has flourished. Atlanta has the fan base, it's just waiting for the right time to show it's face.
It's like this in every single market, save the Canadian teams. It's like this with most sports. Winning brings people out. Losing does not. It's as simple as that. Jack, I live in New England. I know what Boston is all about. I'm a Boston sports fan myself for everything but hockey and even I can recognize our fans are fairweather. So please Jack, instead of contriving such wonderful lectures on Atlanta sports fans, you should work on your next United States history lecture. The last one was just so good.
As I try to keep this blog neutral and objective, I cannot help but lash out at some of the stuff I've read about the Thrashers over the past few days. I may be late to the ball, but I'd like to share my thoughts on it nonetheless.
Recently NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly went on Winnipeg sports radio to discuss the Thrashers future in Atlanta, while Jack Edwards, who will never be confused with Albert Einstein, went off on this rant which simultaneously praised the Thrashers and degraded the entire sports fanbase in the city of Atlanta.
Daly noted that "We're going to have to look at the long term prospects of that franchise, and if the determination is made that it can't make it there, and can't be successful there, then something will have to be done," and that "Atlanta has proven to be a very difficult market," the latter statement in some senses ringing true.
Edwards blog was a little more asinine, saying things like:
The Thrashers. State bird, you know? Sort of fits in nicely with that Falcons/Hawks ornithological nickname trend? They've been around for 10 seasons now, so you can't really even call them an "expansion team" anymore -- after all, the New York "Amazin'" Mets won the World Series in their eighth season (I think they beat the Braves in the NLCS -- sorry).
and:
they have this guy named Dustin Byfuglien (not "Bigh-FOOG-lee-in" but rather "BUFF-lin") who has a lot of the stuff that makes sports X factors interesting: He's big, fast, creative, eager to please and he already has won a Stanley Cup (that's like the Lombardi Trophy of hockey) with the Chicago Blackhawks.
and, of course, had to throw in the obligatory:
. Sonofagun, they would be drawing deafening capacity crowds in places like Quebec City or Winnipeg, where they are starved to get an NHL team again after the big Sun Belt experiment.
This is all fine and dandy. The fact of the matter is, those who live in glass houses should not throw stones. Edwards blasts the Atlanta sports fans for essentially not supporting their teams. This is excellent. Before we get to hockey, let's observe.
The last year the Boston Red Sox had a losing record was 1997. Their average attendance that year? 27,483, good for 9th in the then-14 team American League. The last year the Boston Celtics had a losing record was 2006-2007, when they put 16,843 fans in the seats per game. That was good for 20th in the 30-team NBA. Patriots attendance numbers were not readily available. The point? Boston doesn't support their teams when they lose either.
The Thrashers are winning now, yes. They have won 7 of 8 and are climbing the Eastern Conference standings. However, they've won as many NHL playoff games as the Red Sox have--zero. Over ten years, that tends to deflate a fan base. Unfortunately for the Thrashers, winning a handful of games in November is not going to magically start selling out Philips Arena. I agree in principle with what Edwards is saying: the fans in Atlanta should be supporting the team. This is absolutely true. But for those who have supported the team only to see star player after star player skip town and for years of little reward, why would any average fan want to spend thousands of dollars on season tickets?
That's a good question I suppose. Perhaps we should ask Bruins fans? Here's a comparison look at the Bruins attendance versus the Thrashers since the Thrashers inception:
| Season | Thrashers | Bruins |
| 1999-2000 | 17,206 | 16,322 |
| 2000-2001 | 15,262 | 15,432* |
| 2001-2002 | 13,668 | 15,403* |
| 2002-2003 | 13,476 | 15,029* |
| 2003-2004 | 15,121 | 15,133* |
| 2004-2005 | N/A | N/A |
| 2005-2006 | 15,550* | 16,211 |
| 2006-2007 | 16,240* | 14,746 |
| 2007-2008 | 15,831 | 15,384* |
| 2008-2009 | 14,626 | 17,039* |
| 2009-2010 | 13,607* | 17,388* |
*=Indicates winning season
Note that when the Thrashers had their two winning seasons from 2005-2007, attendance was at its highest. When the Bruins had their losing swoon during that same time, their attendance suffered the most. The point? There is a correlation between winning teams and attendance.
The Chicago Blackhawks are the toughest ticket in hockey right now, selling out the United Center on a nightly basis. During their last losing season in 2006-2007, the Blackhawks drew 12,727 fans per night to the United Center, lower than any paid attendance number in Thrashers history. Look at the 'Hawks now; they've rebuilt their team (with help from Rick Dudley) and turned them into a Stanley Cup champion. Their championship season? They lead the NHL with a 21,356 average which was 108.3% of the United Center capacity.
In 2003-2004 the Pittsburgh Penguins were the worst team in the NHL. Their attendance that year? A paltry 11,877, which sparked relocation rumors galore. Things turned around after that for the Penguins as they soon went on to win the 2009 Stanley Cup. They drew 16,975 that season and, come to think of it, I haven't heard any relocation talk since.
The point? Winning builds a fan base. The Thrashers have never iced a consistent winner and their attendance numbers reflect that rightfully so. NHL tickets are not exactly inexpensive. Would you want to spend hundreds of dollars to go bring your family to a game to see a product you knew was inferior? I know I wouldn't. Even being the hockey fan that I am I couldn't justify spending hundreds and hundreds of dollars to watch my team get smoked--I'd rather just watch it on TV. Sure, I love the live game, but the casual hockey fan thinks with their wallet.
Those casual fans are what fill the TD Bank Garden every night. Sure, the Bruins have a solid fan base. If the Thrashers had been founded in 1924 I'm sure their fan base would be more extensive as well. But aside from those lifelong fans, there are plenty of Boston sports fans up here that love the Bruins yet can't say Milan Lucic's name right. They're casual, fairweather fans and every city has them. What I see from Jack Edwards is, well (not surprisingly), ignorant. The Bruins have not always packed the Garden and there will be a day when they won't again. Same goes with the Thrashers.
I'm looking at you too, Bill Daly. The NHL has much greater problems in Phoenix. Remember that Washington, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Carolina, and the list goes on and on, are non-traditional hockey markets where the sport has flourished. Atlanta has the fan base, it's just waiting for the right time to show it's face.
It's like this in every single market, save the Canadian teams. It's like this with most sports. Winning brings people out. Losing does not. It's as simple as that. Jack, I live in New England. I know what Boston is all about. I'm a Boston sports fan myself for everything but hockey and even I can recognize our fans are fairweather. So please Jack, instead of contriving such wonderful lectures on Atlanta sports fans, you should work on your next United States history lecture. The last one was just so good.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Thrashers Success Not a Fluke
As the Thrashers head into tonights battle with the Colorado Avalanche (10:00 p.m. EST), they ride a five-game winning streak in which they outscored the Islanders, Red Wings, Capitals, Canadiens, and Bruins by a total of 19-3. Things are clicking on all cylinders right now for the Thrashers and it's perhaps the best hockey they've ever played. Ever.
The Thrashers sit with 27 points in 24 games (on pace for 92) but had 31 points in 24 games last year. So why should this be any different? After all, they were on pace for 106 last year but only finished with 83. As a Thrashers fan, sometimes it's easy to fall for the mirage that is good hockey in Atlanta. But the fact of the matter is, this team is not just a mirage--they're a legitimate playoff contender.
Craig Ramsay is a hockey genius. It takes one look at the teams leading scorer to tell you that--yes, Dustin Byfuglien--he who the hockey world said should not be a defenseman and chastized Ramsay's decision. Turns out to be a pretty good one, eh? And while I'll be the first to admit I was not thrilled with putting Byfuglien at the point, I have complete faith in Ramsay's decision making.
With the even-tempered Ramsay behind the bench, the Thrashers are less likely to veer off the beaten path. And with Ramsay as a mentor, the Thrashers are a quick study. The little things; the marginal details that in the past have cost the Thrashers points in the standings have been corrected.
Defenseman have excellent gap control up and down the ice, which is best exemplified in Jim Slater's goal against the Bruins. Dustin Byfuglien had a very tight gap between he and Bruins forward Brad Marchand--when Marchand fumbled the puck, Byfuglien sprung Slater the other way. It's little details like this that have made the Thrashers so successful.
But beyond the details, it's the fact that the Thrashers are progressing. In the past we've seen spurts of brilliant play only to see the wheels come off the wagon. This season, things are trending upwards. Shots against was a huge issue last year. While the Thrashers still have given up a league-worst 35.1 shots-per-game, they have outshot their opponents in 9 of the last 12 games. They're making progress, which as all Craig Ramsay and Rick Dudley could ask for.
The penalty kill is improving, up to 24th in the league at 79.8%. The power play has been lights out at 24.7%, good for second in the entire NHL and the best in the Eastern Conference. The Thrashers are 4-1-3 in one-goal games, meaning they've registered 69% of all possible points in close games. The Thrashers were 17-15-13 last year in one-goal games, the second worst winning percentage in the NHL and only 52% of possible points. One of the keys to making the playoffs is getting points in those tight games and finding ways to win, something the Thrashers are doing better this season.
But perhaps the most telling stat is the Thrashers lack of slow starts. They have had a few rocky first periods this year, but collectively they have improved their first period totals. Last season the Thrashers were a -24 in first period goal differential. This season? +1. The Thrashers are finding, especially as of late, that it's much easier to play from ahead than try to come back from a 2-0 hole every night.
The Thrashers are still a long way from being legitimate Stanley Cup contenders, but they are undoubtedly heading in the right direction. They have improved every game, which in actuality is almost as important as wins and losses. If the Thrashers can keep accelerating forward at the current pace, this could be one heck of a season.
TC
The Thrashers sit with 27 points in 24 games (on pace for 92) but had 31 points in 24 games last year. So why should this be any different? After all, they were on pace for 106 last year but only finished with 83. As a Thrashers fan, sometimes it's easy to fall for the mirage that is good hockey in Atlanta. But the fact of the matter is, this team is not just a mirage--they're a legitimate playoff contender.
Craig Ramsay is a hockey genius. It takes one look at the teams leading scorer to tell you that--yes, Dustin Byfuglien--he who the hockey world said should not be a defenseman and chastized Ramsay's decision. Turns out to be a pretty good one, eh? And while I'll be the first to admit I was not thrilled with putting Byfuglien at the point, I have complete faith in Ramsay's decision making.
With the even-tempered Ramsay behind the bench, the Thrashers are less likely to veer off the beaten path. And with Ramsay as a mentor, the Thrashers are a quick study. The little things; the marginal details that in the past have cost the Thrashers points in the standings have been corrected.
Defenseman have excellent gap control up and down the ice, which is best exemplified in Jim Slater's goal against the Bruins. Dustin Byfuglien had a very tight gap between he and Bruins forward Brad Marchand--when Marchand fumbled the puck, Byfuglien sprung Slater the other way. It's little details like this that have made the Thrashers so successful.
But beyond the details, it's the fact that the Thrashers are progressing. In the past we've seen spurts of brilliant play only to see the wheels come off the wagon. This season, things are trending upwards. Shots against was a huge issue last year. While the Thrashers still have given up a league-worst 35.1 shots-per-game, they have outshot their opponents in 9 of the last 12 games. They're making progress, which as all Craig Ramsay and Rick Dudley could ask for.
The penalty kill is improving, up to 24th in the league at 79.8%. The power play has been lights out at 24.7%, good for second in the entire NHL and the best in the Eastern Conference. The Thrashers are 4-1-3 in one-goal games, meaning they've registered 69% of all possible points in close games. The Thrashers were 17-15-13 last year in one-goal games, the second worst winning percentage in the NHL and only 52% of possible points. One of the keys to making the playoffs is getting points in those tight games and finding ways to win, something the Thrashers are doing better this season.
But perhaps the most telling stat is the Thrashers lack of slow starts. They have had a few rocky first periods this year, but collectively they have improved their first period totals. Last season the Thrashers were a -24 in first period goal differential. This season? +1. The Thrashers are finding, especially as of late, that it's much easier to play from ahead than try to come back from a 2-0 hole every night.
The Thrashers are still a long way from being legitimate Stanley Cup contenders, but they are undoubtedly heading in the right direction. They have improved every game, which in actuality is almost as important as wins and losses. If the Thrashers can keep accelerating forward at the current pace, this could be one heck of a season.
TC
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Thrashers Head Into Crucial Battle With Detroit
The Thrashers are a few days removed from a successful weekend which saw them take four of a possible four points with a 5-0 win over Washington and a 2-1 overtime thriller over the Islanders. The Thrashers are looking to carry that success into a battle with the talented Detroit Red Wings.
Hopefully Philips Arena will be a little more alive tonight after drawing just 10,066 fans for Sunday's matinee. The Thrashers are playing their 4th game of a season-high six-game homestand. The Thrashers are 2-1-0 on the homestand so far and finish it up this weekend with tilts against Montreal (Friday) and Boston (Sunday).
Detroit's trip to Atlanta also marks the first match-up of Thrashers rookie Alexander Burmistrov and his idol Pavel Datsyuk. I expect a big game out of the young Burmistrov tonight, who has notched five points in his last six games and has looked much more adept offensively.
One note, as observed by Thrashers blogger Ben Wright: since the lockout, 80% of teams in the top eight spots on Thanksgiving day in the Eastern Conference wound up making the playoffs. Of course, the Thrashers have fallen into that 20% of non-playoff teams twice (2007-2008 and 2009-2010), so maybe it's not the most important thing in the world, but it would still be nice going into the holiday to occupy the 8th spot.
The next three games are a huge test for the Thrashers; playing the top team in the NHL (Detroit is 13-3-2), the Northeast-leading Canadiens, and the Bruins, who occupy the sixth spot as of November 24th. If the Thrashers can find a way to take two of the next three games, in any order, they'll put themselves in pretty good shape. The schedule ahead is quite daunting, but it will be a good test as the team continues to grow and seems to be coming together better.
Keys to tonight's game:
1. Strong goaltending. The Thrashers have given up three goals in the last three games, all of which have been started by Ondrej Pavelec who is 2nd in the NHL in save percentage (.939) and 3rd in goals against (1.93). Pavelec has looked especially solid as of late, and him carrying the workload could be a key to getting Chris Mason some rest so he can contribute down the road. Jimmy Howard will likely get the start for Detroit, so it could come down to an excellent battle of two very young goaltenders.
2. Score first. The Red Wings are 10-0-1 when scoring first, the third highest winning percentage of any team in the NHL. They are a much more pedestrian 3-3-1 when they are scored on first, so the Thrashers should make it a key to have a hot start the way they started against Washington last Friday when they tallied three times in the first period. It is much easier to play from in front than to come from behind, especially against a team of Detroit's caliber.
3. Continue shooting the puck. The Thrashers have improved their shots for/shots against numbers over the past several games and tonight it becomes a huge key yet again. The Red Wings are tied for 2nd in the NHL in shots for with 33.5 per game. They own an NHL-best 9-2-1 record when outshooting their opponents. The Thrashers are a mediocore 5-6-3 when being outshot. The last thing the Thrashers can afford to do is come out and get peppered by a Detroit team that leads the league with 3.67 goals for per game.
NOTES:
Thrashers defenseman Dustin Byfuglien is tied for the NHL lead in GWG with 4 (Stamkos, Nash)...Byfuglien leads all NHL defenseman in goals (7) and is third in points (19)...Bryan Little is healthy and will play versus Detroit tonight...Thrashers defenseman Tobias Enstrom is 10th among NHL defenseman in average time on ice (25:01)...Rich Peverley is 7th in the NHL in face-off percentage (58.7%).
TC
Hopefully Philips Arena will be a little more alive tonight after drawing just 10,066 fans for Sunday's matinee. The Thrashers are playing their 4th game of a season-high six-game homestand. The Thrashers are 2-1-0 on the homestand so far and finish it up this weekend with tilts against Montreal (Friday) and Boston (Sunday).
Detroit's trip to Atlanta also marks the first match-up of Thrashers rookie Alexander Burmistrov and his idol Pavel Datsyuk. I expect a big game out of the young Burmistrov tonight, who has notched five points in his last six games and has looked much more adept offensively.
One note, as observed by Thrashers blogger Ben Wright: since the lockout, 80% of teams in the top eight spots on Thanksgiving day in the Eastern Conference wound up making the playoffs. Of course, the Thrashers have fallen into that 20% of non-playoff teams twice (2007-2008 and 2009-2010), so maybe it's not the most important thing in the world, but it would still be nice going into the holiday to occupy the 8th spot.
The next three games are a huge test for the Thrashers; playing the top team in the NHL (Detroit is 13-3-2), the Northeast-leading Canadiens, and the Bruins, who occupy the sixth spot as of November 24th. If the Thrashers can find a way to take two of the next three games, in any order, they'll put themselves in pretty good shape. The schedule ahead is quite daunting, but it will be a good test as the team continues to grow and seems to be coming together better.
Keys to tonight's game:
1. Strong goaltending. The Thrashers have given up three goals in the last three games, all of which have been started by Ondrej Pavelec who is 2nd in the NHL in save percentage (.939) and 3rd in goals against (1.93). Pavelec has looked especially solid as of late, and him carrying the workload could be a key to getting Chris Mason some rest so he can contribute down the road. Jimmy Howard will likely get the start for Detroit, so it could come down to an excellent battle of two very young goaltenders.
2. Score first. The Red Wings are 10-0-1 when scoring first, the third highest winning percentage of any team in the NHL. They are a much more pedestrian 3-3-1 when they are scored on first, so the Thrashers should make it a key to have a hot start the way they started against Washington last Friday when they tallied three times in the first period. It is much easier to play from in front than to come from behind, especially against a team of Detroit's caliber.
3. Continue shooting the puck. The Thrashers have improved their shots for/shots against numbers over the past several games and tonight it becomes a huge key yet again. The Red Wings are tied for 2nd in the NHL in shots for with 33.5 per game. They own an NHL-best 9-2-1 record when outshooting their opponents. The Thrashers are a mediocore 5-6-3 when being outshot. The last thing the Thrashers can afford to do is come out and get peppered by a Detroit team that leads the league with 3.67 goals for per game.
NOTES:
Thrashers defenseman Dustin Byfuglien is tied for the NHL lead in GWG with 4 (Stamkos, Nash)...Byfuglien leads all NHL defenseman in goals (7) and is third in points (19)...Bryan Little is healthy and will play versus Detroit tonight...Thrashers defenseman Tobias Enstrom is 10th among NHL defenseman in average time on ice (25:01)...Rich Peverley is 7th in the NHL in face-off percentage (58.7%).
TC
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