Thrashers Success Not a Fluke

As the Thrashers head into tonights battle with the Colorado Avalanche (10:00 p.m. EST), they ride a five-game winning streak in which they outscored the Islanders, Red Wings, Capitals, Canadiens, and Bruins by a total of 19-3. Things are clicking on all cylinders right now for the Thrashers and it's perhaps the best hockey they've ever played. Ever.

The Thrashers sit with 27 points in 24 games (on pace for 92) but had 31 points in 24 games last year. So why should this be any different? After all, they were on pace for 106 last year but only finished with 83. As a Thrashers fan, sometimes it's easy to fall for the mirage that is good hockey in Atlanta. But the fact of the matter is, this team is not just a mirage--they're a legitimate playoff contender.

Craig Ramsay is a hockey genius. It takes one look at the teams leading scorer to tell you that--yes, Dustin Byfuglien--he who the hockey world said should not be a defenseman and chastized Ramsay's decision. Turns out to be a pretty good one, eh? And while I'll be the first to admit I was not thrilled with putting Byfuglien at the point, I have complete faith in Ramsay's decision making.

With the even-tempered Ramsay behind the bench, the Thrashers are less likely to veer off the beaten path. And with Ramsay as a mentor, the Thrashers are a quick study. The little things; the marginal details that in the past have cost the Thrashers points in the standings have been corrected.
Defenseman have excellent gap control up and down the ice, which is best exemplified in Jim Slater's goal against the Bruins. Dustin Byfuglien had a very tight gap between he and Bruins forward Brad Marchand--when Marchand fumbled the puck, Byfuglien sprung Slater the other way. It's little details like this that have made the Thrashers so successful.

But beyond the details, it's the fact that the Thrashers are progressing. In the past we've seen spurts of brilliant play only to see the wheels come off the wagon. This season, things are trending upwards. Shots against was a huge issue last year. While the Thrashers still have given up a league-worst 35.1 shots-per-game, they have outshot their opponents in 9 of the last 12 games. They're making progress, which as all Craig Ramsay and Rick Dudley could ask for.

The penalty kill is improving, up to 24th in the league at 79.8%. The power play has been lights out at 24.7%, good for second in the entire NHL and the best in the Eastern Conference. The Thrashers are 4-1-3 in one-goal games, meaning they've registered 69% of all possible points in close games. The Thrashers were 17-15-13 last year in one-goal games, the second worst winning percentage in the NHL and only 52% of possible points. One of the keys to making the playoffs is getting points in those tight games and finding ways to win, something the Thrashers are doing better this season.

But perhaps the most telling stat is the Thrashers lack of slow starts. They have had a few rocky first periods this year, but collectively they have improved their first period totals. Last season the Thrashers were a -24 in first period goal differential. This season? +1. The Thrashers are finding, especially as of late, that it's much easier to play from ahead than try to come back from a 2-0 hole every night.

The Thrashers are still a long way from being legitimate Stanley Cup contenders, but they are undoubtedly heading in the right direction. They have improved every game, which in actuality is almost as important as wins and losses. If the Thrashers can keep accelerating forward at the current pace, this could be one heck of a season.

TC

Thrashers Head Into Crucial Battle With Detroit

The Thrashers are a few days removed from a successful weekend which saw them take four of a possible four points with a 5-0 win over Washington and a 2-1 overtime thriller over the Islanders. The Thrashers are looking to carry that success into a battle with the talented Detroit Red Wings.

Hopefully Philips Arena will be a little more alive tonight after drawing just 10,066 fans for Sunday's matinee. The Thrashers are playing their 4th game of a season-high six-game homestand. The Thrashers are 2-1-0 on the homestand so far and finish it up this weekend with tilts against Montreal (Friday) and Boston (Sunday).

Detroit's trip to Atlanta also marks the first match-up of Thrashers rookie Alexander Burmistrov and his idol Pavel Datsyuk. I expect a big game out of the young Burmistrov tonight, who has notched five points in his last six games and has looked much more adept offensively.

One note, as observed by Thrashers blogger Ben Wright: since the lockout, 80% of teams in the top eight spots on Thanksgiving day in the Eastern Conference wound up making the playoffs. Of course, the Thrashers have fallen into that 20% of non-playoff teams twice (2007-2008 and 2009-2010), so maybe it's not the most important thing in the world, but it would still be nice going into the holiday to occupy the 8th spot.

The next three games are a huge test for the Thrashers; playing the top team in the NHL (Detroit is 13-3-2), the Northeast-leading Canadiens, and the Bruins, who occupy the sixth spot as of November 24th. If the Thrashers can find a way to take two of the next three games, in any order, they'll put themselves in pretty good shape. The schedule ahead is quite daunting, but it will be a good test as the team continues to grow and seems to be coming together better.

Keys to tonight's game:

1. Strong goaltending. The Thrashers have given up three goals in the last three games, all of which have been started by Ondrej Pavelec who is 2nd in the NHL in save percentage (.939) and 3rd in goals against (1.93). Pavelec has looked especially solid as of late, and him carrying the workload could be a key to getting Chris Mason some rest so he can contribute down the road. Jimmy Howard will likely get the start for Detroit, so it could come down to an excellent battle of two very young goaltenders.

2. Score first. The Red Wings are 10-0-1 when scoring first, the third highest winning percentage of any team in the NHL. They are a much more pedestrian 3-3-1 when they are scored on first, so the Thrashers should make it a key to have a hot start the way they started against Washington last Friday when they tallied three times in the first period. It is much easier to play from in front than to come from behind, especially against a team of Detroit's caliber.

3. Continue shooting the puck. The Thrashers have improved their shots for/shots against numbers over the past several games and tonight it becomes a huge key yet again. The Red Wings are tied for 2nd in the NHL in shots for with 33.5 per game. They own an NHL-best 9-2-1 record when outshooting their opponents. The Thrashers are a mediocore 5-6-3 when being outshot. The last thing the Thrashers can afford to do is come out and get peppered by a Detroit team that leads the league with 3.67 goals for per game.

NOTES:

Thrashers defenseman Dustin Byfuglien is tied for the NHL lead in GWG with 4 (Stamkos, Nash)...Byfuglien leads all NHL defenseman in goals (7) and is third in points (19)...Bryan Little is healthy and will play versus Detroit tonight...Thrashers defenseman Tobias Enstrom is 10th among NHL defenseman in average time on ice (25:01)...Rich Peverley is 7th in the NHL in face-off percentage (58.7%).

TC

Game Preview: Thrashers vs. Wild, 11/11/10

The Thrashers are coming off a dismal performance in Ottawa on Tuesday night which saw them score early just to get obliterated, 5-2. Despite outshooting Ottawa the Thrashers were out-chanced and outworked all night by a hungry Senators team that has been playing solid hockey as of late.

The Thrashers have a busy weekend ahead with games against Pittsburgh and Washington, so starting off on the right foot is crucial with a Western Conference foe entering a likely half-empty Philips Arena (not half-full; half-empty). This is Minnesota's only meeting with the Thrashers this season.

What to watch for:

The Thrashers are an inexplicable 1-2-3 when scoring first. A big start should be key, but who knows. By contrast the Thrashers have the second best winning percentage in the NHL at .556 (5-4-0) when trailing first. A nice start would be key, but a full 60 minutes is more crucial for the Thrashers. The Thrashers are playing a Minnesota team who has scored 44% of their goals (14 of 32) in the first period, which also doesn't bode well. Minnesota is 5-1-2 when scoring first, so the Thrashers want to try and avoid falling behind early.

Minnesota, typically renowned for their defense, has the 8th best penalty kill in the NHL at 86.4%. The Thrashers have the third best power play in the NHL at 26.1%, so it could be an entertaining match-up. The Thrashers trail only Vancouver (27.3%) and...Minnesota (27.1%) in power play conversion, so tonights game may come down to a special teams battle. The Thrashers penalty kill is good for fourth-worst in the league at 75.5%. Atlanta must either tighten up its penalty kill or simply stay out of the box, something they've been doing better as of late.

What the Thrashers must do to win:

I can't believe this must be said of an NHL team, but the Thrashers have to come focused and put in a 60-minute effort. The Thrashers have struggled at times with Craig Ramsay's system, as evidenced in Ottawa. The Thrashers must control their gaps in the neutral zone better and must win more defensive zone face-offs. If the Thrashers are going to continue to use Alexander Burmistrov on the penalty kill he must improve his dismal 40.2% faceoff percentage.

Key player:

Evander Kane, the team's young leader, must rise to the occasion tonight. The Thrashers sluggish play must be fixed and who better to go to than the trusted 19-year-old? Kane plays with a spark that's going to be needed to come out in front of a more-than-likely sparse crowd and propel the team to a much needed two points before entering a daunting weekend ahead.

Roster Notes:

Freddy Meyer has been activated from the IR but is a healthy scratch tonight...Bryan Little began skating today but there is no timetable for his return...Patrice Cormier skated prior to the Thrashers practice this morning but there is no timetable for his return either...Thrashers prospect Angelo Esposito notched his first career tally in the Chicago Wolves 3-2 loss to the Texas Stars...Boris Valabik, who was not claimed on re-entry waivers last week, had a fight in the game, which was his second of the year and second in as many games.

TC

"Black" Cloud Over Thrashers?

While perusing the media lately I have noticed the media has noticed something everyone else noticed a long time ago: the Thrashers have a lot of black hockey players. Evander Kane, Johnny Oduya, Anthony Stewart, Nigel Dawes, Dustin Byfuglien, Sebastien Owuya, and Akim Aliu are all black and all in the Thrashers organization. But what gives?

Articles like this Yahoo! one suggest that the Thrashers intentionally acquired several black players to help boost ticket sales in a city that is over 50% black. While these claims could hold water, the realistic side of things is that they simply don't.

Let's look at each player. Evander Kane was picked 4th overall in 2009 and was that high on most draft boards. Kane is 7th in the NHL in goals this season as a 19-year-old, so I think to say that he was a solid pick. Sure, they could have snagged a Brayden Schenn or Nazem Kadri, but Kane is a much better fit in Atlanta on hockey talent alone.

Then there's Johnny Oduya, acquired in the Ilya Kovalchuk trade last February. Oduya is a solid defenseman with some offensive upside, not to mention under contract until 2012. Oduya stabilizes the blue line and was a big piece for the Thrashers in that trade, white or black.

Dustin Byfuglien's stock was extremely high after the 2010 playoffs in Chicago. He was probably the most sought-after piece in Chicago's "wait, our cap situation is that screwed up?" fire sale over the summer. Byfuglien has been a force on Atlanta's blue line to this point, and Rick Dudley had known Byfuglien from his Chicago days, so the move only made sense.

Anthony Stewart came over as a free agent in 2009 and spent last season in Chicago. He has made huge strides however and has had a breakout year to this point with the Thrashers, notching seven points in nine games. Stewart is hardly the kind of black player that is marketable, however: skin color aside, third liners aren't exactly the focus of any marketing campaign. Stewart fits the mold of a Rick Dudley team; big, strong, a solid shot and a hard nose.

Aliu was another piece in the Chicago trade, but is also a Rick Dudley guy; big, strong, and all the makings of a prototypical power forward. Aliu was one of the top prospects on Chicago's depth chart and adding him to the mix is only wise. Aliu has had off-ice troubles, but bringing in another guy that can mix it up and play an aggressive game only makes sense from a Thrashers point of view.

Nigel Dawes was a low-risk signing and risk didn't pay off, as he was demoted to Chicago last week. It's always good to have depth and again, Dawes isn't a marketable player...he's a third or fourth liner on almost every NHL team he could actually make, so I don't buy the argument here either.

Sebastien Owuya was the Thrashers 169th pick in last years draft, so the odds he ever makes Atlanta are pretty slim. Owuya is 6'3" and fits the Rick Dudley mold well; he's an offensive defenseman who plays with an edge and moves the puck well.

Now that Atlanta has acquired all these players for hockey reasons, the marketing scheme could fall into place. Could it help to promote Evander Kane or Dustin Byfuglien? Sure. Perhaps they could relate to the black community, but it's been well-documented that winning brings in fans. It doesn't matter if the players are black, white, or purple, nobody wants to see a losing product. If the Thrashers ice 20 black players and lose 10-0 every night, I can assure you the black community still won't be there. If the Thrashers ice 20 white players and win the black community may start to show up anyways.

Marketing the black players isn't the worst idea and the fact of the matter is this: the team's best forward and best defenseman right now are black, so they're the most marketable anyways. The most successful business plan is simply that: a successful business. If the Thrashers continue to win this season, people will start to show more.

In the end, what's most important has to do with one color: silver. No matter what skin color the Thrashers players are, I can assure you there will be much more support for the team if they're hoisting that big Cup thing some June down the road.

TC

Thrashers Hang On at MSG, 6-4

I had my first opportunity to take in a Thrashers game this year, this one coming at Madison Square Garden. It was my first time at MSG, so it was surely a treat to see the Thrashers come out with a crucial two points against a team they could be battling with for a playoff spot.

Some of the notes from the game:

-Dustin Byfuglien on defense is a good idea. I wasn't on board with this at first, but he's looked spectacular aside from the one (and only Thrasher's) penalty he took last night when he was caught out of position. He had another goal, giving him three on the year, and looks great with Toby Enstrom, both of whom logged over 22:00 of ice time.

-Tobias Enstrom is a defensive genius. He's smooth skating and for his size plays extremely impressive defense. Already an impressive playmaker and starting to shoot more, coupled with playing on a line with Byfuglien, Enstrom could very well top 60 points this season.

-Johnny Oduya had a very solid game in New York, perhaps his finest of the season. He was in position all night and played the body effectively despite being a -1 for the night.

-Alexander Burmistrov deserves a roster spot. Craig Ramsay is gaining more and more trust in him as is evidenced by the 17:18 he played Wednesday night. He also drew another penalty with a nifty move to beat two Rangers and picked up his first career NHL point when he assisted on Evander Kane's sixth goal of the campaign.

-Anthony Stewart had yet another solid game, notching two more assists and being a +3. Stewart has been a surprise to say the least, notching seven points in nine games. It was also nice to see Bryan Little and Niclas Bergfors get out of their respective droughts, each of whom scored their first goals of the season. Little's was vintage little; impressive speed in inside-outing a forward at center, then burning Marc Staal wide and slipping a backhander through Marty Biron's legs. I'd like to see more of this confidence from Little and see him utilize his speed; he has incredible wheels that I'd like to see spinning a little more often.

-Chris Mason made some extremely key saves in backstopping his fourth win of the year. While his numbers (4 goals on 28 shots) may seem underwhelming, he made some key stops down the stretch as the Rangers started to pick up momentum and cut a 5-2 lead to 5-4. Mason will finally get a breath when Ondrej Pavelec returns Saturday night in St. Louis.

That's about all from Madison Square Garden. It was a solid win for the Thrashers; there were a ton of positives and it was good to see key guys stepping up in big situations.

Coming up in the near future we'll discuss Atlanta's penchant for bringing in black players which has become more of a topic in the mainstream media as of late.

TC

Thoughts Through the First Eight

The Thrashers sit 3-4-1 through their first eight games, and after a couple uninspiring losses to Buffalo and Tampa played a solid road game in a 4-3 overtime loss to Washington on Saturday night. The Thrashers have a few days off before heading to Madison Square Garden on Wednesday night.

Looking back at the first few games, there are a few positives and a few negatives. First, the negatives:

Discipline. The Thrashers have taken the second most bench minors in the league with three, all of which were too many men on the ice calls. The Thrashers are tied for fourth in the NHL in shorthanded situations, being shorthanded 37 times in eight games. Couple that with the 28th best penalty kill in the league and it's nothing but a recipe for disaster for the Thrashers that must be corrected soon.

Slow starts. The Thrashers have given up the 2nd most goals of any NHL team this season in the first period. They've givem up 10 in 8 games, something that must be corrected. It's difficult to win games when having to battle back every night, and it's playing with fire getting down 1-0 or 2-0 after the first.

Shots on goal. Through eight games the Thrashers are giving up an average of 37.6 shots against, good for second most in the league. Of course the quality of the shots must be analyzed as well, but the Thrashers are simply relying on their goaltenders too much. Given the fact that the Thrashers are 21st in the league in shots for, the longer this continues the less likely they are to win games. You can only get badly outshot so often, like the 42-18 debacle against Buffal on Wednesday, before it catches up with you.

There have been many positives so far, however:

Character. The Thrashers have overcome some adversity this season, battling back for wins against Washington, Anaheim, and San Jose, as well as earning a point in Washington with a late rally. The Thrashers are also playing for one another, as evidenced by the team defending Alexander Burmistrov against Tampa last Friday night. A little character goes a long way, something previous Thrashers teams can be accused of not having.


Chicago Infusion. The new Thrashawks have contributed in a big way. Dustin Byfuglien has chipped in six points from the blueline and Andrew Ladd is off to his best October of his career, notching eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his first eight games. Brent Sopel and Ben Eager have pitched in as well. The four new Thrashers have combined for 17 points in eight games thus far and Dustin Byfuglien has looked right at home on the blueline.

Secondary Scoring. Anthony Stewart and Chris Thorburn have combined for seven goals thus far, and Jim Slater and Freddy Modin have added a little offense when healthy. Considering Rich Peverley, Niclas Bergfors, Nic Antropov, and Bryan Little have combined for no goals in the first eight games, this a huge positive. Those guys will start scoring soon, but it's good to see the bottom two lines contributing while the top two lines run cold with the exception of Ladd and Evander Kane.


I'll be at Madison Square Garden on Wednsday as I'll be making the trip down from Maine. I'll have some thoughts on that game as the Thrashers battle a banged up, Marian Gaborik-less Rangers squad.

TC

West Coast Recap/Looking Ahead

So I know I'm behind the eight-ball a little bit, but because of school I haven't been able to discuss last weekend's success in California, so here goes:

The Thrashers came from two goals down twice over the weekend, beating Anaheim 5-4 in a shootout and the Sharks 4-2 on Saturday night. This is either a positive or a negative depending on how you look at it; the Thrashers did fall behind in both games but managed to battle back. Stating the obvious, this isn't a habit the Thrashers want to get in to.

In all honesty I had penciled the Thrashers in for a loss on Saturday, playing a dangerous San Jose team in their home opener, not to mention the Thrashers rigorous travel schedule that day and playing back-to-back games on the west coast is never easy. The "bus legs" were evident in the first period but they came out strong in the second with Bryan Little setting up the team's first shorthanded goal of the year. Bryan Little's play has been encouraging early. Desptie not netting a goal to this point he has notched three assists in the first five games.

Dustin Byfuglien picked a great time for his first goal as a Thrasher, netting the game-winner in third period with, even better, Dany Heatley in the penalty box. Evander Kane continued his red-hot start with his third goal of the year.

But the story of the weekend was Anthony Stewart, as he doubled his career goal total in just two games. After scoring four goals in his previous 105 NHL games, Stewart netted a hat trick in Anaheim and added another beauty in San Jose. You can look at Stewart leading the team in goals in one of two ways: the fact that Anthony Stewart is leading the team in goals is sort of alarming considering the other offensive talent, or the fact that the other offensive talent will get going in time and there is no reason for panic.

I like the latter in this situation. Nik Antropov is still recovering and will still be good for 20+ goals. Rich Peverley will find the scoresheet soon enough and Nic Bergfors is known to be streaky and could bust out at any moment. Bergfors still figures to be a 20+ goal scorer as well, so his goose egg through his first four games played isn't particularly alarming.

All in all it was a solid west coast trip. The Los Angeles game last Wednesday wasn't exactly a beauty, but four of six points in Los Angeles, Anaheim, and San Jose is nothing to be ashamed of. The Thrashers have registered six points in five games, which amounts to about 98 points over a full season. Not to mention the Thrashers have already gone on their west coast trip and have already beaten the Capitals once.

OTHER NOTES:

-Boris Valabik was assigned to Chicago after clearing waivers last week. Hopefully this will give Boris an opportunity to develop his game. I still see promise in Valabik. While not particularly mobile, if he can learn to use his size a la Zdeno Chara there is still some hope. If Valabik ends up half as good as Chara he'll be a servicable NHL defenseman.

-Ondrej Pavelec is skating again. This is great news which really goes without saying.

-Zach Bogosian is still day-to-day. I know it's just a minor injury, but when is Zach going to stay healthy for more than six hours at a time?

More to come after tomorrow night's game with Buffalo.

TC