Saturday, October 9, 2010

Game Preview: Thrashers vs. Lightning, 10/9/10

After a rousing win on opening night over the Washington Capitals, who the Thrashers hadn't beaten since March 16, 2009 (which was the sixth game of a franchise record winning streak), the Thrashers travel south to Tampa Bay for their first road game of the season.

The Lightning are a new-look team, most notably adding Simon Gagne in the off-season in a trade with Philadelphia. Former Thrasher Pavel Kubina will suit for the Lightning as well after signing a free agent deal in July. The Lightning figure to be revamped, but are missing one key cog from 2009-2010, when they went 5-1-0 against Atlanta; Antero Nittymaki. Nittymaki dominated Atlanta last year, and always, going 17-0-0 against Atlanta in his career. Mike Smith will get the nod in net tonight for Tampa. Smith was in net for the Thrashers last win over Tampa, which was opening night last season.

What to watch for:

The Lightning will be playing their season opener in front of a rowdy crowd in Tampa tonight. Tampa will undoubtedly have energy and will be playing their first game for new GM Steve Yzerman. Chris Mason will be playing for the second straight night which should make for a compelling match-up; Mason will be leaned upon early as Ondrej Pavelec recovers from his scary and inexplicable fall in the season opener.

What the Thrashers must do to win:

The Thrashers must continue to forecheck the way they did last night and not deviate from the system. The Thrashers penalty killing, which was 3-for-3 last night, must show up in a big way again; the Thrashers legs will probably be tested tonight and as result could lead to a few more shorthanded situations. One of the keys will be to score early and allow Craig Ramsay to roll four lines to alleviate this problem.

Key player:

Chris Mason must rise to the occasion on back-to-back nights here in the early going of the season. Mason performed admirably last night, even though he admitted he "couldn't even focus" after his teammate collapsed in the first period last night. Stealing two points in Tampa would be a fanastic opening weekend.

TC

Monday, October 4, 2010

Season Prediction: Goaltending

So, the season is upon us. And with the new season comes a tradition in the mainstream media: ridiculous predictions that are never right. And so, as an up-and-coming blog, we at ThrashCompactor feel it necessary to follow our "expert" bretheren and make absurd predictions that will be wrong anyways but take up blog space.

Today, we dissect the Thrashers goaltending.

What must go right:

For one, Ondrej Pavelec must continue his development as a number one goaltender. Pavelec took steps back forward in 2009-2010, but his brilliance came in spurts; consistency is one of the last missing pieces in Pavelec's game. Chris Mason must be a good mentor to Pavelec and provide a stability in a position where Atlanta has never had any true stability. Mason mentoring Pavelec could be as beneficial as Mason's play itself.

What could go wrong:

As Atlanta fans have become accustomed to, the Thrashers have never had a true number one, save perhaps Kari Lehtenon. The thing about Lehtenon; he played one full season. So, one of the Thrashers ten seasons have featured a number one goaltender. Coincidentally or not, the Thrashers made the playoffs that season (2006-2007). Injuries could play a key factor. Losing either Mason or Pavelec could be detrimental, though the Thrashers have some depth in Peter Mannino and Drew MacIntyre. The bottom line, however, is if either Mannino or MacIntyre are playing NHL games this year the Thrashers are likely in some trouble.

Bold predicition:

By season's end, Ondrej Pavelec is the number one goaltender. That's not a knock against Mason in the least; Pavelec is just an extremely gifted player who, if he puts it all together, could be an elite goaltender in the NHL. Mason will still play a boatload of games this season, but when it comes down to it Pavelec is the goaltender of the future. They have done a reasonable job growing him into that role and now is his opportunity to seize it.

Bottom line:

The Thrashers can finally breathe easy when looking at the crease. They have a proven winner in Mason and a budding star in Pavelec. Not to knock Johan Hedberg in the slightest, but this is a much-improved tandem from last year. Playing a more defensively responsible system is even more beneficial to the goaltenders in Atlanta, something that we haven't seen in a long time. For once, the Thrashers can rest assured they won't have to win games 10-9.

TC

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Roster Shrinking; Shocking Cuts?

It has been quite a long time since I've been able to blog, mostly because school has been chaotic. Now that I'm settled in and hockey season is upon us I can hopefully write a little bit more as far as the Thrashers go.

The Thrashers did lose their opening pre-season game. I could not watch it, being in Maine, but from listening to the Columbus radio feed I gathered that Little-Dawes-Pettersson line was the most effective. I like Pettersson's chances of making the team at this point; from all indications I've heard that he's been a real solid NHL player. He is a little older than many of the guys he's competing against, but that will only give them more time to develop.

The Thrashers also made some cuts in the wake of the game, most notably Paul Postma, Kyle McLaren, and Angelo Esposito. I'm surprised Esposito and Postma weren't kept around a little longer, if at the very least to see what they could bring to the table in a couple NHL games. I predicted McLaren would be offered a contract and I was wrong; I suppose there just weren't enough open spots to warrant giving McLaren an opportunity. It will still be very beneficial for Esposito and Postma to return to the minors and get things going in Chicago with the Wolves. I was a little surprise at first, but the move will give the more legitimate hopefuls more ice time without hindering the two youngsters development.

In another note, here is an interesting piece that had been posted on the Thrashers message boards about Alexander Burmistrov. I still think he'll get at least a shot at the big club this season, though again I've heard secondhand that his play hasn't been anything to write home about. Again, this is only from one pre-season game and a few scrimmages, but it is what it is. That being said, Craig Ramsay did note that Burmistrov's physical play has not really been an issue which was one of the main concerns about him in the first place.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Thrashers Add Depth; A Good Idea?

The free agent market was slim pickings this off-season, at least on the offensive end of the spectrum, and the Thrashers did not get in on the Frolov and Ponikarovskys of the 2010 free agent class. They did, however, make subtle moves this week in adding Fredrik Modin to an $800,000 NHL contract and by adding Nigel Dawes to a two-way contract at league minimum.

While these are merely depth signings, the Modin signing has the potential to be a steal. Modin has a laser of a shot and could be a 20-goal scorer under one condition: he stays healthy. And that, my friends, has been quite the challenge for Modin, who hasn't played more than 50 games since 2006-2007 when he was in Columbus. He had 22 goals that season and has had eight 16+ goal seasons in the NHL. The drawback? Modin is turning 36 next month has played 23, 50, 24, and 20 games over the last four seasons respectively.

Secondly the team added Nigel Dawes, a smaller (5'9" 190) left wing. Dawes had 32 points (14 G, 18 A) last year in Calgary and has had success with the Rangers and Coyotes previously. Dawes in 25, however, and it seems to go against what Rick Dudley as been saying about letting the kids play. But are these two signings a hindrance to the kids playing or merely an intelligent back-up plan? Is it more beneficial to use a trial-by-fire method or groom the prospects we have?

It is widely believed Patrice Cormier, Spencer Machacek, and Alex Burmistrov have solid chances of cracking the Atlanta roster. Say hypothetically they make the team opening night...that leaves little extra space:

Antropov
Ladd
Kane
Little
Peverley
Bergfors (assuming he's resigned)
Modin
Slater
Boulton
Thorburn
Eager
Cormier
Burmistrov
Machacek
Dawes
Pettersson

That is 16 forwards by my count, not including Patrick Rissmiller and Angelo Esposito who have slim chances of making the squad. So is it more effective to let someone like Machacek play now or let Dawes play over him because he's better at this moment?

Dawes is likely a more effective NHL player at this point in time, merely because Machacek has played two NHL games to Dawes' 199. Say Dawes is the better player for sake of discussion; is it wiser to let the better player play, or the younger player who figures to be in the long term plans? Which is more beneficial now and which benefits down the road?

Machacek has proven himself at the AHL level, scoring 20+ goals in his first two pro years. He turns 22 next month. Dawes would appear to be the more beneficial choice at this point in time to play a bottom line role. But why should this bump Machacek to them minors again? He has to play in the NHL someday and now seems like as good of a time as any.

While it's tough to say, it could be more beneficial to guys like Cormier to take a step back to take two steps forward--play in the minors for a while to groom themselves to make a sure step into the NHL, rather than jumping in feet first. But would that jeopardize wins and losses this season? Is it wiser to play the kids and let them learn rather than playing role players like Dawes who don't figure into the long-term plans for the franchise?

It's a tough debate and will likely be answered within the next couple of weeks, but I suppose when it comes down to it you can never have enough depth.

What do you all think?

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Five Bold Training Camp Predictions

Well, the dog days of summer are nearing an end and training camp begins next week...next week! The doldrums of summer are nearing an end which is great news to any hockey-starved fan. This training camp promises to be an interesting one for Thrashers fans, with so many young prospects chomping at the bit to make the NHL club and with so many new faces. But what lies ahead in training camp? Thrash Compactor attempts to make some bold, possibly farfetched, and in some cases unlikely predicitons. And here goes:

1. Alexander Burmistrov makes the team out of camp

Rick Dudley has said since Draft day that Burmistrov has NHL capabilities but the only thing plaguing him is his weight. Burmistrov is short by NHL standards these days (5'11") but is shifty. And after being drafted at around 160 pounds, Burmistrov is in Atlanta at over 175, a reasonable weight for a speedy, 5'11" center. Burmistrov will have to show he can win faceoffs and be defensively responsible, but he has dazzling skills and Rick Dudley has said he will give Burmistrov every chance to succeed. Whether or not he stays past his nine games in the regular season remains to be seen, but Thrashers brass will give Burmistrov an opportunity to prove his worth in the NHL.

2. Kyle McLaren earns a contract.

McLaren is touted as having NHL skills and an unlucky injury history. Rick Dudley has also stated you can never have too many defenseman and has backed this talk up by signing some 476 of them. But McLaren is a dark horse here, having not played in the NHL since 2008. McLaren, when healthy, is a defensive defenseman who hits hard and blocks a ton of shots, something that could be helpful in front of young goaltender Ondrej Pavelec. While McLaren may not necessarily earn an NHL deal, a two-way deal is very likely and the Thrashers have reaped the rewards of signing tryout guys before. See: Max Afinogenov. Who? Just the Thrashers 2nd leading scorer last year who came in on a pro tryout.

3. Ron Hainsey will be named captain.

While I've stated that I believe Evander Kane should be captain, it is still likely he's too young. Hainsey has three years left on his contract, which would make Kane 22 when the contract is up. Honestly, I can't see Hainsey sticking around after the three years for a few reasons; namely money and the fact that three years from now the Thrashers should have an experienced Bogosian, Kulda, Enstrom, and Paul Postma on the blueline, leaving little space for Hainsey. Assuming that, age 22 would be a brilliant age for Kane to step in and take the captaincy over for years to come while he develops into the star he is projected to be. Hainsey is outspoken and American, a solid spokesperson for the team until Kane is ready for the role.

4. Dustin Byfuglien will remain at forward.

I understand that Rick Dudley seems to have an infatuation with Byfuglien playing defense, but it simply doesn't make sense with the current Thrashers roster. Enstrom, Hainsey, Sopel, Oduya, Bogosian, Kulda, and Valabik are all NHL defenseman, so unless one is moved Byfuglien will remain at forward. The Thrashers need goals anyways. Out of the entire roster, there has only been one player who had one 30-goal season, which was Bryan Little in 2008-2009. There are players with 30-goal potential, but Byfuglien opening space for guys like Little and Bergfors to work their magic is too tempting to pass up. Byfuglien could play 'D' in emergency situations throughout the season, but I think Byfuglien makes way more sense up front.

5. Patrice Cormier doesn't make the team out of camp.

Rick Dudley has talked Cormier up like no tomorrow, but let's face the facts: Cormier has played nine competitive hockey games since January and had a total of 0 points in those games. If Burmistrov makes the team out of camp I would expect Cormier to start the season in the AHL while the team feels out Burmistrov. If Burmistrov goes back to Barrie after nine games, Cormier would simply slide into the 4th line spot and whoever was centering the fourth line--possibly Slater--could slide into the 3rd line spot. The bottom line? It's hard to envision Cormier starting the season in the NHL with so little playing time in the last 9 months. Cormier will likely get a plethora of NHL playing time this season, but it may not be in October.

What do you think? Any other bold moves for the Thrashers? Discuss away.

TC

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Tidbits for your August afternoon..

Just a bunch of quick hits here as a few developments have gone down over the last few days.

-First off, the Thrashers announced the re-signing of Bryan Little to a 3-year deal with a $2.38 million cap hit. I like this deal a lot, and Little will still be an RFA when the contract is up so it makes even more sense. As I've said before, I think Little is going to have a true breakthrough season this year and show off the scoring touch that got him selected 12th overall in 2006.

-Secondly, the Thrashers have signed defenseman Andrey Zubarev out of the KHL. Zubarev was a 7th rounder in 2005 for the Thrashers and has been developing in Russia. Zubarev plays an up-tempo, phyiscal style which will fit in well to the Thrashers line-up when he makes the team. The Thrashers have quite the glut on defense right now, with Toby Enstrom, Zach Bogosian, Johnny Oduya, Brent Sopel, Boris Valabik, Zubarev, Arturs Kulda, Paul Postma, Ron Hainsey, and Freddy Meyer all fighting for spots. It's safe to say that Hainsey, Bogosian, Sopel, Enstrom, and Oduya will all have a spot, leaving five guys battling for the final two roster openings. Could we see a deal, or will Dudley hang on to the extra guys for depth? My guy leans with the latter, so we'll see how it plays out.

-The Thrashers have "touched base" with Lee Stempniak's agent according to Craig Custance of the Sporting News. This would be interesting, but it seems to be kind of a square peg in a round hole fit. Stempniak is streaky and small and the Thrashers have intended to leave openings for players like Alex Burmistrov and Patrice Cormier to crack the roster. Adding Stempniak will only close those roster openings unless more moves are made, but at the moment the Thrashers roster seems to be pretty much set as training camp approaches.

Other than that, not much is going on around the Thrashers or the hockey world in general. Training camp is upon us and that will certainly give us more to talk about in the coming weeks. Oh, and the Thrashers Mount Puckmore has been posted. What do you all think..good choices? I'm a little irked Rumun Ndur wasn't on there.

TC

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Captain Kane: Pass or Fail?

Well, the dog days of summer are upon us and little is happening in the hockey world. Some of the team has begun reporting to Atlanta and hockey season is closing in. As the season approaches, the team is still void of a captain after the departure of Ilya Kovalchuk midway through last season. So who should take the reigns?

There has been much speculation about possible candidates. Marty Reasoner was considered a strong candidate, but after being flipped to Chicago, then Florida weeks later, Reasoner is out of the running. Ron Hainsey is a vocal leader and one of the older faces in a relatively young locker room. Someone like Andrew Ladd has a captain's-like work ethic but has never played a game with the team. So who should the "C" go to?

First off, if I were Craig Ramsay I'd wait a month or three before awarding a "C" anyways. The captaincy should not be handed out during training camp and I'm sure Ramsay knows this.

In my humble opinion, the captaincy should be awarded to Evander Kane. Yes, Kane just turned 19 on August 2nd. But look at the four youngest permament captains in NHL history:

Sidney Crosby (19 years, 297 days)
Vincent Lecavalier (19 years, 315 days)
Jonathan Toews (20 years, 80 days)
Steve Yzerman (21 years, 151 days)

Trivia: do you know what all of those guys have in common? A Stanley Cup ring. In today's NHL, the shift towards younger captains has become more common. Alexander Ovechkin was named captain of the Capitals at age 24. Dustin Brown was named captain of the Los Angeles Kings at age 23. Rick Nash was named Blue Jackets captain at 24. The point? Age is merely a number these days when it comes to being a captain.

Kane appears to be well-respected by his teammates, most of whom sing high praise of Kane. And most importantly? It would solidify a captain's position in Atlanta that has rotated for years with a young, outspoken, hard-nosed kid that is well-recieved by the fan base.

The Thrashers have had seven captains in ten seasons. It doesn't take a math major to realize that that's a lot of captains in a little time. The only captain to ever have been a Thrashers draft pick was Kovalchuk, but he wasn't necessarily captain material anyways. Having a captain from within the organization would stabilize things and there would be consistent leadership from someone with a lot of pride in the organization.

Now, it seems like a radical idea and maybe it is. Kane would become the youngest captain in NHL history, but what's wrong with even more publicity? The Thrashers are a team searching for an identity, and Kane's game is exactly what the team is searching for. Some skill, some creativity, and all of that balanced out with a "never back down" attitude.

He may only be 19, but I see great positives in naming Evander Kane as the next captain of the Atlanta Thrashers.