And Here We Go Again...Relocation Rumors Resurface

As if they ever actually went away, but still...rumors of a Thrashers re-location as early as next season have resurfaced thanks to Canadian boy Darren Dredger on TSN's playoff pre-game show yesterday evening. Dredger claimed that a deal with Matthew Hulsizer is possible to keep the Phoenix Coyotes in Arizona, which would immediately shift that National Hockey League's focus to moving the Thrashers to Winnipeg. His comments were backed up by this hardly informative TSN article this afternoon.

These rumors have been swirling for a while now, but this is legitimate do-or-die time for the fate of the Thrashers. Tom Glavine, who won two Cy Young awards for the Braves, spoke up last week in support of the Thrashers, including citing he would be interested in organizing a group of investors to keep the team in Atlanta. His efforts would be superhuman and crucial for the team's existence without a doubt. But the fact that the NHL would move Atlanta over Phoenix is mind-boggling, regardless of a Hulsizer sale or not.

The Thrashers finished 27th in attendance in 2010-2011, an average of 1,200 more per game than the Coyotes and 2,400 more than the New York Islanders. According to a 2010 Forbes article the Thrashers are the 29th most valuable team in the 30-team league, second-to-last to only the Coyotes. The Thrashers are valued at around $135 million, but what is missed here is what they could be valued at.

Citing some recent examples, the Pittsburgh Penguins were valued at $101 million in 2004, falling into bankruptcy and hearing these same relocation rumors. The team drafted well, developed a winner, and are now the 9th most valuable team in the NHL at $235 million. Are the Thrashers in line for a 232% increase in team value? Likely not. But the Thrashers are on a winning track, something that the city of Atlanta will embrace. Nothing will kill a team like bad ownership, and this current ownership group has run the team into the ground. With a new, committed owner in Atlanta and the team on an upward tick, there is no doubt the team could be profitable in the city of Atlanta.

Other teams that struggled in the early 2000s include the Chicago Blackhawks (who saw a $122 million value increase from 2004 to 2010)and the Washington Capitals ($82 million) have all come out of relative financial swoons. The Coyotes, since 2004, are valued at $2 million less over the six year time frame. The Thrashers are worth $30 million MORE over that same time period, which was about when the Atlanta Spirit group bought the team.

The owners claim to be bleeding money, but with all the lawsuits and contempt it's hard to feel sympathy. The team has appreciated in value since their purchase, so even a loss over the last couple of seasons (they definitely didn't lose money in 2005-2006 or 2006-2007 when the attendance averaged over 15,500 both seasons) turns into more or less of a wash considering the appreciation in value. And if the loss of money is so taxing on their wallets, the multi-million dollar lawsuits should probably be avoided as well so as they can make sure there is still food on the table at the end of the day.

The point is this: moving the Thrashers would be a stupid, typical Gary Bettman maneuver. Hockey is growing in Georgia, whether the NHL understands this or not. Since 1998-1999, the year before the Thrashers existence, youth hockey participation in Georgia has grown more per capita than any other state, by quite a bit, in the last decade. Ironically, youth hockey numbers declining in Canada, though all of that is admittedly relative.

While citing youth hockey numbers seems irrelevant, the fact of the matter is this: the Thrashers are helping grow hockey in a non-traditional market and the kids playing youth hockey in Georgia are going to grow up Thrashers fans the same way kids playing in Massachusetts grow up Bruins fans and those in up-state New York become Sabres fans. This is what helps a franchise grow, something the Thrashers have not had sufficient time to do.

It's hard to grow a fan base when there is no tradition. If, and likely when, the Thrashers string together a couple of post-season runs this fan base WILL grow. This is almost undoubted. In Phoenix that hasn't been the case. Despite icing very good teams the past two seasons, attendance numbers have been horrific. Yet, for some reason, the NHL wants to keep the team in Phoenix and exile Atlanta to the doldrums of Winnipeg. It's practically been proven that when the Thrashers have a legitimate playoff contender, people will support them. In 2006-2007, the team's only playoff season, the Thrashers sold out 11 (27%) of their regular season games and played in front of deafening, standing room only crowds in the post-season. The team can and will catch on in Atlanta if the ownership is settled and the team continues it's rise in the NHL's power rankings on the ice.

The last point is a simple one...population. The Atlanta metro area is home to 5,300,000 people according to the 2010 census. Winnipeg is home to just south of 700,000 people according to the 2006 census. The corporate dollars in Atlanta are simply unmatchable by Winnipeg. Atlanta ranks fourth in the United States in Fortune 500 companies. Winnipeg...not so much. The corporate opportunities, if tapped properly, are boundless in Atlanta. Not to mention that Philips Arena was ranked the number five concert and events venue IN THE WORLD according to Pollstar statistics in 2010. Winnipeg would be playing in a dive of an arena that frankly would be a fifth tier rink in comparsion to the fantastic venues around the NHL, let alone Atlanta.

The bottom line is this: moving the Thrashers would be asinine from a growth of the game and a financial perspective. And if time is running out on the Thrashers, it's time for the NHL to look in the mirror and see that fans everywhere are suffering from an ownership inept of running a gas station, let alone a professional hockey franchise.

Season Review Part 2: The Bad

In part two of the season review, we discuss the bad of the Thrashers season. While there were plenty of good moments to discuss, the season certainly had it's low points. In the next few paragraphs, we break them apart here.

January and February Tailspin.

After the Thrashers beat the Panthers in regulation on January 5th, the Thrashers entered a horrific tailspin that eventually cost them a post-season berth. Starting on January 7th with a 9-3 drubbing on home ice to Toronto, the Thrashers began a 2-4-3 run to close out January and a miserable 2-7-2 February streak that all but doomed the team. A 7-6-1 March and a 1-4-0 April weren't enough for the team to claw back into playoff position, and they ended up missing the dance by 13 points. From January 5th on, the Thrashers went 12-21-6. If they had gone a measly 18-14-7 during that stretch, which is the difference of 6 wins instead of 6 losses, the team would have been in.

There are many could have, would have, should have moments that the Thrashers would like to have back and there were a plethora of reasons for the struggles. The goaltending and power play that had been so effective in the first half fell apart. The penalty kill nose-dived in a horrific way. The team got away from the hockey they had played in the first half and it cost them. The bright side, however, is that the team played playoff hockey for the better part of three months, only adding experience to a young roster.

Zach Bogosian's Regression.

Many would put this in the "ugly" category (coming next blog!), but Bogosian made strides in his game over the second half of the year. Bogosian's numbers were down from his first two seasons, when he averaged over 9 goals and 11 assists. He finished 2010-2011 with 5 goals and 12 assists, but most staggeringly a -27 plus-minus, good for 5th worst in the NHL. 6th worst? Ilya Kovalchuk, at -26. In Bogosian's defense, he was playing against top line pairs. But there were times when Bogosian looked lost in his own end. Bogosian still has the chance to be a special player. He's big, strong, has an excellent shot and is a fantastic skater. He still can't have a legal beer yet, so there's no reason for the team to give up on him, but next year is a pivotal year in Bogosian's development.

Penalty Kill Struggles.

Despite finishing strong, the Thrashers finished 27th in the NHL with a 77.5% penalty kill. While I in no way intend to criticize Craig Ramsay, he is supposed to be a defensive specialist and the penalty kill fell from 82.2%. As kids like Alex Burmistrov and Bryan Little adapt, the penalty could be a quick, effective unit that even has some scoring prowess. The alarming thing from the 2010-2011 season is that the Thrashers were shorthanded only 285 times, good for 14th in the league. The discipline, as a whole was there, but the team gave up the 3rd most power play goals in the NHL. Moving forward, the penalty kill should be an area of concern for the Thrashers. Man, wouldn't it be nice to have Marty Reasoner out there?

Chris Mason.

Chris Mason was brought in on a 2-year deal for pretty good value, but he was nothing short of atrocious for the Thrashers this season. He was 13-13-3, which is respectable, but he finished with a .892 save percentage and a bloated 3.39 GAA. Mason is definitely a dependable goaltender, but the Thrashers will need more from him in 2011-2012 as Ondrej Pavelec continues to develop into a number one.

Back-to-back Goals in Under Two Minutes.

This has been covered at length in various places, but it is definitely a huge area of concern for the Thrashers moving forward. The Thrashers allowed back-to-back goals in under two minutes 27 times this season, going 3-15-3 in games in which they did. In the three overtime losses, if they had not allowed back-to-back goals they hypothetically would have had three more points. Three of the games were one-goal games (with empty netters) meaning they would have had three more points. That would have put them 7 points out of the playoffs alone, and who's to say what would have happened in other games where consecutive goals killed any momentum?

It's a team character issue, perhaps due to youth, perhaps due to identity. The most important shifts in hockey are the ones after goals, no matter who scores. If the opponent scores, the next line has to be committed to playing in the offensive end and keeping the team off the scoresheet. This didn't happen this season, and it was one of the glaring factors in the team missing the post-season.

Getting It Done In Regulation.

The Thrashers only had 19 regulation wins this season, good for last in the Eastern Conference. Wanna make the playoffs? A good step is getting the job done before the extra frame. The Thrashers lacked a killer instinct this season, too often allowing teams to get back into games and drag it into overtime. In fact, the only team with fewer regulation wins was the Colorado Avalanche with 18. The 2011-2012 Thrashers need to find a way to bury teams when they have the chance and close things out in regulation.

Next up will the the ugly of the 2010-2011 Thrashers season. What were your qualms with the 2010-2011 Thrashers? What were your "bad" points from the previous year? Post in the comments section below.

TC

Season Review Part 1: The Good

So, now that the dust has settled from the Thrashers season and I have my laptop back, it's time to look at the 2010-2011 season. I will be doing a three part series, featuring the good, the bad, and the ugly. We start today with the good things, despite the fact I had to think way back to December to come up with some. Cynicism aside, the good from the 2010-2011 Atlanta Thrashers season.


Hot Start.

While the team's impressive start turned out to be a tease, in hindsight you have to look at the positives here. The team proved that, when playing at what GM Rick Dudley termed an "optimal level", this team can be something special. The start included a stretch of six straight wins over the Islanders, Bruins, Red Wings, Canadiens, Capitals, and Avalanche when they outscored their opponents 22-5. We'll talk about consistency in the next part of this series, but the Thrashers proved that when healthy and playing a committed game they can be a legitimate threat in the NHL.

Captain Ladd.

Andrew Ladd came into the 2010-2011 season as a role player for most of his career despite being drafted 4th overall in 2004. With two Stanley Cups under his belt, Ladd has been a winner wherever he's gone and was named the 8th captain in Thrashers history on November 18th. Ladd took the duties to heart, posting a career and team high 59 points (29 G, 30 A), eclipsing his previous career high in goals by a dozen. Ladd is a restricted free agent this summer and contracts with the team are on-going. Locking up Ladd is a priority, as he emerged this season as a legitimate goal scoring threat with leadership the Thrashers haven't had in a long, long time.

Big Buff's Big Breakout.

Many questioned the team's decision to move Dustin Byfuglien back to defense after his dominating performance in the 2010 Stanley Cup playoffs. The move paid big dividends, with Byfuglien doubling the Thrashers franchise record for goals by a defenseman (with 20, including 6 game-winners), earning an assistant captain position, and being named an NHL All-Star. Byfuglien's production tailed off a little in the second half and there are still questions about whether or not he should be a forward, but overall Byfuglien had a solid season and brought a winning attitude and flair to a team in desperate need of it.

Long-term Contracts.

With much uncertainty in Atlanta about the future of the team, Dustin Byfuglien and Mark Stuart both signing long-term deals were a huge stepping stone for the future of the team on the ice. Byfuglien was locked up for five seasons, tied with Ilya Kovalchuk for the longest contract in the franchise's existence. Mark Stuart extended his contract just 10 days after he was acquired from Boston. Locking up Stuart and Byfuglien solidifies a defense that already has Toby Enstrom and Ron Hainsey locked up through 2013. The fact that two significant pieces were willing to commit to Atlanta long-term is a huge positive for the team moving forward.

There were some other positives to note this season. Most notably were the play of Evander Kane, who proved he can be a dominant player. Bryan Little had a fine season, playing great two-way hockey. Eric Boulton and Chris Thorburn both had career seasons, including Boulton's first career hat trick. Alex Burmistrov started and finished the season extremely well, despite an expected lull in the middle as he adjusted to the NHL level of play. Burmistrov has legitimate top-line talent and hockey sense. Blake Wheeler showed that he can be a legitimate scoring threat after coming over from a flat-lining stint in Boston.

Going forward the Thrashers are in a very good piece. They are yet again a piece or two away from not only being a playoff contender. The difference between being a piece away this time and in years past is having a competent GM. We'll see how this summer plays out, but the Thrashers definitely put a lot of building blocks in place in the 2010-2011 season.

TC