Thrashers Success Not a Fluke

As the Thrashers head into tonights battle with the Colorado Avalanche (10:00 p.m. EST), they ride a five-game winning streak in which they outscored the Islanders, Red Wings, Capitals, Canadiens, and Bruins by a total of 19-3. Things are clicking on all cylinders right now for the Thrashers and it's perhaps the best hockey they've ever played. Ever.

The Thrashers sit with 27 points in 24 games (on pace for 92) but had 31 points in 24 games last year. So why should this be any different? After all, they were on pace for 106 last year but only finished with 83. As a Thrashers fan, sometimes it's easy to fall for the mirage that is good hockey in Atlanta. But the fact of the matter is, this team is not just a mirage--they're a legitimate playoff contender.

Craig Ramsay is a hockey genius. It takes one look at the teams leading scorer to tell you that--yes, Dustin Byfuglien--he who the hockey world said should not be a defenseman and chastized Ramsay's decision. Turns out to be a pretty good one, eh? And while I'll be the first to admit I was not thrilled with putting Byfuglien at the point, I have complete faith in Ramsay's decision making.

With the even-tempered Ramsay behind the bench, the Thrashers are less likely to veer off the beaten path. And with Ramsay as a mentor, the Thrashers are a quick study. The little things; the marginal details that in the past have cost the Thrashers points in the standings have been corrected.
Defenseman have excellent gap control up and down the ice, which is best exemplified in Jim Slater's goal against the Bruins. Dustin Byfuglien had a very tight gap between he and Bruins forward Brad Marchand--when Marchand fumbled the puck, Byfuglien sprung Slater the other way. It's little details like this that have made the Thrashers so successful.

But beyond the details, it's the fact that the Thrashers are progressing. In the past we've seen spurts of brilliant play only to see the wheels come off the wagon. This season, things are trending upwards. Shots against was a huge issue last year. While the Thrashers still have given up a league-worst 35.1 shots-per-game, they have outshot their opponents in 9 of the last 12 games. They're making progress, which as all Craig Ramsay and Rick Dudley could ask for.

The penalty kill is improving, up to 24th in the league at 79.8%. The power play has been lights out at 24.7%, good for second in the entire NHL and the best in the Eastern Conference. The Thrashers are 4-1-3 in one-goal games, meaning they've registered 69% of all possible points in close games. The Thrashers were 17-15-13 last year in one-goal games, the second worst winning percentage in the NHL and only 52% of possible points. One of the keys to making the playoffs is getting points in those tight games and finding ways to win, something the Thrashers are doing better this season.

But perhaps the most telling stat is the Thrashers lack of slow starts. They have had a few rocky first periods this year, but collectively they have improved their first period totals. Last season the Thrashers were a -24 in first period goal differential. This season? +1. The Thrashers are finding, especially as of late, that it's much easier to play from ahead than try to come back from a 2-0 hole every night.

The Thrashers are still a long way from being legitimate Stanley Cup contenders, but they are undoubtedly heading in the right direction. They have improved every game, which in actuality is almost as important as wins and losses. If the Thrashers can keep accelerating forward at the current pace, this could be one heck of a season.

TC

Thrashers Head Into Crucial Battle With Detroit

The Thrashers are a few days removed from a successful weekend which saw them take four of a possible four points with a 5-0 win over Washington and a 2-1 overtime thriller over the Islanders. The Thrashers are looking to carry that success into a battle with the talented Detroit Red Wings.

Hopefully Philips Arena will be a little more alive tonight after drawing just 10,066 fans for Sunday's matinee. The Thrashers are playing their 4th game of a season-high six-game homestand. The Thrashers are 2-1-0 on the homestand so far and finish it up this weekend with tilts against Montreal (Friday) and Boston (Sunday).

Detroit's trip to Atlanta also marks the first match-up of Thrashers rookie Alexander Burmistrov and his idol Pavel Datsyuk. I expect a big game out of the young Burmistrov tonight, who has notched five points in his last six games and has looked much more adept offensively.

One note, as observed by Thrashers blogger Ben Wright: since the lockout, 80% of teams in the top eight spots on Thanksgiving day in the Eastern Conference wound up making the playoffs. Of course, the Thrashers have fallen into that 20% of non-playoff teams twice (2007-2008 and 2009-2010), so maybe it's not the most important thing in the world, but it would still be nice going into the holiday to occupy the 8th spot.

The next three games are a huge test for the Thrashers; playing the top team in the NHL (Detroit is 13-3-2), the Northeast-leading Canadiens, and the Bruins, who occupy the sixth spot as of November 24th. If the Thrashers can find a way to take two of the next three games, in any order, they'll put themselves in pretty good shape. The schedule ahead is quite daunting, but it will be a good test as the team continues to grow and seems to be coming together better.

Keys to tonight's game:

1. Strong goaltending. The Thrashers have given up three goals in the last three games, all of which have been started by Ondrej Pavelec who is 2nd in the NHL in save percentage (.939) and 3rd in goals against (1.93). Pavelec has looked especially solid as of late, and him carrying the workload could be a key to getting Chris Mason some rest so he can contribute down the road. Jimmy Howard will likely get the start for Detroit, so it could come down to an excellent battle of two very young goaltenders.

2. Score first. The Red Wings are 10-0-1 when scoring first, the third highest winning percentage of any team in the NHL. They are a much more pedestrian 3-3-1 when they are scored on first, so the Thrashers should make it a key to have a hot start the way they started against Washington last Friday when they tallied three times in the first period. It is much easier to play from in front than to come from behind, especially against a team of Detroit's caliber.

3. Continue shooting the puck. The Thrashers have improved their shots for/shots against numbers over the past several games and tonight it becomes a huge key yet again. The Red Wings are tied for 2nd in the NHL in shots for with 33.5 per game. They own an NHL-best 9-2-1 record when outshooting their opponents. The Thrashers are a mediocore 5-6-3 when being outshot. The last thing the Thrashers can afford to do is come out and get peppered by a Detroit team that leads the league with 3.67 goals for per game.

NOTES:

Thrashers defenseman Dustin Byfuglien is tied for the NHL lead in GWG with 4 (Stamkos, Nash)...Byfuglien leads all NHL defenseman in goals (7) and is third in points (19)...Bryan Little is healthy and will play versus Detroit tonight...Thrashers defenseman Tobias Enstrom is 10th among NHL defenseman in average time on ice (25:01)...Rich Peverley is 7th in the NHL in face-off percentage (58.7%).

TC

Game Preview: Thrashers vs. Wild, 11/11/10

The Thrashers are coming off a dismal performance in Ottawa on Tuesday night which saw them score early just to get obliterated, 5-2. Despite outshooting Ottawa the Thrashers were out-chanced and outworked all night by a hungry Senators team that has been playing solid hockey as of late.

The Thrashers have a busy weekend ahead with games against Pittsburgh and Washington, so starting off on the right foot is crucial with a Western Conference foe entering a likely half-empty Philips Arena (not half-full; half-empty). This is Minnesota's only meeting with the Thrashers this season.

What to watch for:

The Thrashers are an inexplicable 1-2-3 when scoring first. A big start should be key, but who knows. By contrast the Thrashers have the second best winning percentage in the NHL at .556 (5-4-0) when trailing first. A nice start would be key, but a full 60 minutes is more crucial for the Thrashers. The Thrashers are playing a Minnesota team who has scored 44% of their goals (14 of 32) in the first period, which also doesn't bode well. Minnesota is 5-1-2 when scoring first, so the Thrashers want to try and avoid falling behind early.

Minnesota, typically renowned for their defense, has the 8th best penalty kill in the NHL at 86.4%. The Thrashers have the third best power play in the NHL at 26.1%, so it could be an entertaining match-up. The Thrashers trail only Vancouver (27.3%) and...Minnesota (27.1%) in power play conversion, so tonights game may come down to a special teams battle. The Thrashers penalty kill is good for fourth-worst in the league at 75.5%. Atlanta must either tighten up its penalty kill or simply stay out of the box, something they've been doing better as of late.

What the Thrashers must do to win:

I can't believe this must be said of an NHL team, but the Thrashers have to come focused and put in a 60-minute effort. The Thrashers have struggled at times with Craig Ramsay's system, as evidenced in Ottawa. The Thrashers must control their gaps in the neutral zone better and must win more defensive zone face-offs. If the Thrashers are going to continue to use Alexander Burmistrov on the penalty kill he must improve his dismal 40.2% faceoff percentage.

Key player:

Evander Kane, the team's young leader, must rise to the occasion tonight. The Thrashers sluggish play must be fixed and who better to go to than the trusted 19-year-old? Kane plays with a spark that's going to be needed to come out in front of a more-than-likely sparse crowd and propel the team to a much needed two points before entering a daunting weekend ahead.

Roster Notes:

Freddy Meyer has been activated from the IR but is a healthy scratch tonight...Bryan Little began skating today but there is no timetable for his return...Patrice Cormier skated prior to the Thrashers practice this morning but there is no timetable for his return either...Thrashers prospect Angelo Esposito notched his first career tally in the Chicago Wolves 3-2 loss to the Texas Stars...Boris Valabik, who was not claimed on re-entry waivers last week, had a fight in the game, which was his second of the year and second in as many games.

TC